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Technical Task Update

Technical Task Update. FY16-17. Presentation to the NETAC Policy and Technical Committees May 3, 2017 Sue Kemball-Cook, Jeremiah Johnson, John Grant and Greg Yarwood. Today’s Presentation. Update on FY16-17 Technical Tasks Task 1: Emission Reduction Projects Task 2: High Ozone Day Analysis

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Technical Task Update

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  1. Technical Task Update FY16-17 • Presentation to the NETAC Policy and Technical Committees • May 3, 2017 • Sue Kemball-Cook, Jeremiah Johnson, John Grant and Greg Yarwood

  2. Today’s Presentation • Update on FY16-17 Technical Tasks • Task 1: Emission Reduction Projects • Task 2: High Ozone Day Analysis • Task 3: Photochemical Modeling

  3. Task 1: TERP Emissions Reduction Projects • May 20, 2016 NETAC Meeting • NETAC committee members requested to identify people responsible for fleets of vehicles/equipment that may be eligible for TERP emissions reduction funding • Summer 2016 • ETCOG followed up with potential applicants and provided information on TERP and upcoming TCEQ workshop in Northeast Texas • Fall 2016 • TERP ERIG Program opened for applications • TCEQ held a TERP grant application workshop in Longview • Spring 2017 • ETCOG and Ramboll Environ followed up with workshop attendees on TERP application status • Based on responses received, a total of 13 project applications were under consideration by three individuals • Fall 2017 • TCEQ releases TERP grant award information • Ramboll Environ reports on Northeast Texas TERP participation and effectiveness of outreach efforts

  4. Task 1: TERP Emissions Reduction Projects • TERP Programs Now Accepting Applications • Rebate Grants Programhttps://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/terp/rebate.html • Due May 26, 2017 (1st come, 1st served) • Texas Natural Gas Vehicle Grant Programhttps://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/terp/tngvgp.html • Due May 26, 2017 (1st come, 1st served)

  5. Task 2: High Ozone Day Analysis • 2016 high ozone day analysis review complete • 2017 high ozone day analysis will be completed by November 15, 2017

  6. Task 3: Photochemical Modeling • Photochemical model is a tool for air quality planning • Control strategy evaluation, attainment demonstration • EPA attainment demonstration modeling method uses base year and future year together to project future year ozone design values • NETAC FY16-17 modeling used TCEQ episodes for 2012 base year, 2017 future year • Model performance evaluation/improvement efforts for 2012 base case modeling • 2017 future year modeling • Based on projected emission inventory close to current year; most relevant available episode for Northeast Texas air quality planning • Today’s talk is an update on FY16-17 modeling efforts – final results will be reported at fall/winter NETAC meeting and in Task 3 final report

  7. Outline of FY16-17 Ozone Modeling • June 2012 episode – model improvement • Model overestimated ozone • Efforts focused on weather inputs to CAMx • In July 2016, TCEQ expanded episode to May-September 2012 • Additional high ozone days in Northeast Texas • Evaluation of full episode for Northeast Texas • Applied new model evaluation techniques • In December 2016, TCEQ updated their 2012 model and released 2017 future year modeling • Source apportionment modeling for Northeast Texas for 2017 June Episode

  8. Evaluation of Modeled Local Ozone Increment • How well does the model simulate a local area’s contribution to ozone? • Directly relevant to Northeast Texas’ use of photochemical modeling • Evaluation technique requires dense monitoring network – applied to Dallas Fort Worth

  9. 2017 CAMx Source Apportionment Results 2017 Projected Design Values • Projected 2017 (actual 2016) design values • Longview 66 ppb (66 ppb) • Tyler 64 ppb (65 ppb) • Karnack 65 ppb (62 ppb) • Attainment of the 70 ppb NAAQS projected for all of the 5-County Area

  10. Contribution to 2017 Design Values from 5-County Area Emissions • EGUs make largest contribution • Signature of I-20, urban areas visible in onroad contribution • O&G pattern corresponds to well distribution, but effect of nearby areas of intensive O&G production (LA, Panola County) not shown here EGU Contribution Onroad Contribution Oil and Gas Contribution

  11. Impact of Haynesville Shale on Northeast Texas Design Values Hayneville Shale Region O&G Contribution to 2017 Projected Design Values • Haynesville region O&G emissions contribution to NETAC design values • Karnack 4.9 ppb • Longview 3.5 ppb • Tyler 2.2 ppb

  12. Ongoing Work • Complete model performance evaluation/improvement efforts for 2012 base case • Evaluate sensitivity of 2017 source apportionment results to weather inputs • Complete analysis of source apportionment results • Summarize FY16-17 efforts in report due November 15, 2017

  13. END PREPARED UNDER A GRANT FROM THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY This presentation was financed through grants from the State of Texas through the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The content, findings, opinions and conclusions are the work of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent findings, opinions or conclusions of the TCEQ.

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