Context of our work

1. Tackling Early School Leaving 6 September 2013NaplesDr. Ilona Murphy ICF-GHKEarly Warning Systems

2. Context of our work • Europe 2020 headline target to bring down the share of early school leavers to below 10% by 2020 • Council Recommendation of 28 June 2011 on policies to reduce ESL • Highlights the need for comprehensive policies (prevention, intervention and compensation) • European Commission Thematic Working Group on Early School Leaving (ESL) established Dec 2011

3. TWG policy context and activities • Activities include: • Two Peer Learning Activities (Netherlands and France) • Peer Review on policies to reduce ESL • Mapping exercises (data collection, early warning systems, cost of ESL) • Report on comprehensive policies against ESL

4. Early school leaving in Europe – scale of the problem • In 2012, 12.9% 18 to 24 years old had not completed upper secondary education and no longer in education and training • Represents 5.5 million young people • More young men than young women are ESL • ESL major problem for disadvantaged minorities • More pronounced in VET • Wide disparities among European countries and regions • Unemployment rate amongst early school leavers was 40.1% in 2012 - economic crisis is having diverging impacts on ESL

5. ESL rate 2012, Europe 2020 target and national targets

6. Early warning systems (EWS) in Europe – mapping exercise • EWS ‘broad term’, taking different forms - definition and characteristics are tentative • EWS collect and use data on students to identify risk factors and trigger follow up • Aim is to warn school staff of young people at risk • EWS typically integral to mainstream school monitoring and management systems • A small number of countries have developed separate systems, others have no such systems in place

7. Variations in approach EWS largely driven by national legislation but implementation tends to be local

8. EWS signals Schools and teachers play an important role in recognising early signs of disengagement

9. Other methods to identify youth at risk – country examples

10. Responses to EWS Responses should be accompanied by clear and timely support • Some countries impose fines, sanctions and prosecution

11. Impact of EWS • Little evidence of the impact of EWS – evaluations are rare, difficult to identify causality between trends • Eurostat and national data show reductions in ESL – view that EWS have contributed to reduction • More resources and evaluation of approaches required • How are EWS defined in different European countries? • When schools or local authorities report absences – what is the outcome of this activity? • What is the data used for? Does it inform policy making? How accessible is it to users? • What distinguishes EWS from being a bureaucratic exercise from systems that address EWS? • How do countries determine different EWS? • How is collaboration and partnerships working in practice?

12. Key lessons, success factors and challenges • Key lessons and success factors: • Important role of teachers • Importance of individual support and guidance for students • Cooperation between schools, supporting systems, professionals • Challenges: • Budget cuts, ensuring legal responsibilities related to EWS are implemented, need for user-friendly data systems, lack of training on ESL, lack of coordination, establishing buy-in, unwillingness of some schools

13. Concluding remarks • Clear definition of EWS • A comprehensive list of EWS must be broader than monitoring absenteeism alone (social, family related issues) • EWS should be evidenced based and operate through a process of identification/assessment of signals – intervening - monitoring • EWS must be accompanied by clear and timely support • EWS must be evaluated and monitored to ensure efficiency and effectiveness within the context of the school

14. Thank you for your attention Ilona.murphy@ghkint.com