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HEADS UP

HEADS UP. H urricane E vacuation A nalysis and D ecision S upport U tility P rogram. HEADS UP Home Page. HEADS UP. Next generation version of the Emergency Transportation Information System (ETIS) Program Dynamic Hourly Travel Demand Forecasting

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HEADS UP

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  1. HEADS UP Hurricane Evacuation Analysis and Decision Support Utility Program

  2. HEADS UP Home Page

  3. HEADS UP • Next generation version of the Emergency Transportation Information System (ETIS) Program • Dynamic Hourly Travel Demand Forecasting • Integrated Traffic Counter Data Ingestion and Analysis • Hourly Traffic Queue Length Estimation • Host Shelter Demand Estimation • Evacuation Shutdown Calculation

  4. HEADS UP • Dynamic Hourly Travel Demand Forecasting • Simulates a gradual loading of evacuation road network based on behavioral surveys • Calculates dynamic clearance times based on specific storm scenario • Provides dynamic hourly critical link data based on specific storm scenario • For entire state • For entire roadway length (I 75, US 231, SR 60) • Cumulative hourly evacuating vehicle and population data (in and out-of county) for all risk counties

  5. HEADS UP Data Input

  6. HEADS UP County Report

  7. HEADS UP

  8. ETIS Loading Curve

  9. HEADS UP Loading Curves

  10. HEADS UP

  11. HEADS UP – 6 hours

  12. HEADS UP – 12 Hours

  13. HEADS UP – 18 Hours

  14. HEADS UP – 24 Hours

  15. HEADS UP – 30 Hours

  16. HEADS UP – 36 Hours

  17. HEADS UP – 42 Hours

  18. HEADS UP

  19. HEADS UP • Dynamic Hourly Travel Demand Forecasting • Max commute time per link or destination • Reverse lane impact determination • Link construction designation capability • Sensitivity analysis for phased evacuations • Evaluation of clearance time impacts of road closures and detours • Re-routing analysis

  20. HEADS UP • Integrated Traffic Counter Data Ingestion and Analysis • Automatically ingest real time traffic counter data for DOT website • Traffic Volume Hourly • Average Speed Hourly • Historical Hourly Average Volumes • Dynamic compare and contrast analysis between demand forecast and counter data • Capability key to queue length calculation and evacuation shutdown functions

  21. DOT Traffic Counter Website

  22. DOT Traffic Counter Data

  23. DOT Traffic Counter Data

  24. Counter Data Comparison

  25. HEADS UP • Hourly Traffic Queue Length Estimation • Determine length of traffic queue for each criticallink • Graphic depiction of queue length on program map • Host Shelter Demand Estimation • Host shelter determination for every county in the state • Predict number of vehicles and people entering host county by roadway • Calculation of time to first arrival of evacuation vehicles and peak vehicle volume based on traffic counter data

  26. HEADS UP • Evacuation Shutdown Calculation • Based on hourly average speed data from real-time traffic counters • Determine which interchange and upstream roadway traffic should be diverted to avoid adding to queue • Icon on map that shows average speed thresholds at each counter location providing indication of possible queue • Map based data input and model results • Coupled with remote statewide meso-scale weather monitoring system (FAWN, DOT and other future met stations)

  27. HEADS UP Data Map

  28. FAWN

  29. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Scenario building to test various evacuation strategies and assumptions • Non Event: • For scenario development during training events and exercises; • Testing various strategies and options in developing regional plans; and • General contingency planning.

  30. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Scenario building to test various evacuation strategies and assumptions • During actual events: • Investigate options for deploying law enforcement and traffic management resources; • Assess impact of reverse lane options; • Study clearance time and operational benefits of phased evacuations; and • Analyze effects of evacuation assumptions (e.g., shadow evacuations, in-county sheltering, etc.); and • Anticipate exigent circumstances.

  31. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Real-time monitoring of evacuation progress and shelter demand • Automatic TTMS ingestion capability allows user to: • Monitor average volume and speeds on critical and strategic links; • Relate observed values against predicted volumes to assess progress and effectiveness of overall evacuation and traffic management efforts; • Calculate realistic estimates of potential shelter demand and arrival timing of evacuees for host counties;

  32. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Real-time monitoring of evacuation progress and shelter demand • Automatic TTMS ingestion capability allows user to: • Realize more rapidly accidents and other circumstances that cause or worsen congestion; and • Obtain better appraisals of actual participation rates and assess the effectiveness of public information efforts.

  33. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Emergency Management • Regional and multi-regional clearance times • Evacuation decision making and coordination • Designation and preparation of host shelter counties • Evacuation shutdown decision making and coordination

  34. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Traffic Operations • More effective deployment of law enforcement resources • Pre-stage personnel and materiel to predicted critical links throughout the entire evacuation event • Use time-based, most congested link data to develop rerouting schemes to divert traffic away from expected congested segments

  35. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Traffic Operations • More effective deployment of law enforcement resources • Determine duration of deployment and possible shifts needed • Designate operational sectors and responsibilities for entire state • Anticipate routine and other reporting requirements between field and Emergency Operations Centers

  36. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Traffic Operations • Implementation of traffic management measures tailored to situation • Pre-stage and continue deployment of highway incident management teams based on service to volume ratios and TTMS data • Deploy ITS resources (i.e., VMS, AM-radios, HAR) for most effective coverage based on service to volume ratios • Analyze options and coordinate operations for reverse–laning and re-routing

  37. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Traffic Operations • Evacuation Shutdown • Determine lead times needed to close interchanges and clear congested roadways based on TTMS average speed data and queue length function • Identify interchanges and alternate routes to clear roadway and reduce queues using queue length determination and evacuation shutdown functions

  38. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Shelter Operations • Improving capabilities in host shelter counties • Designate likely host shelter counties based on predicted traffic volumes for roadways and potential bottlenecks • Determine lead time for host counties to prepare for sheltering mission • Develop a more efficient shelter opening scheme based on predicted numbers of evacuees and entering routes

  39. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Shelter Operations • Opening refuges of last resort • Determine in which counties and along what roadways refuges may have to be opened based on queue length function. • In conjunction with HURREVAC, determine lead time for counties to prepare refuges. • Using travel demand forecast module, determine potential refuge demand along congested roadways.

  40. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Public Information • Pre-Departure Advisories • Using broadcast media and 511 (“Know before you go”) inform evacuees of potential congested areas and suggest alternate routes. • Provide information to potential evacuees of worst household commute times and queue lengths depending on routes selected and evacuation start times.

  41. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Public Information • Pre-Departure Advisories • Forewarn potential motorists of what to expect once evacuation trip has begun based on real time data from TTMS, travel demand, queue length and worst household commute time data. • Using evacuation shutdown lead times, prepare advisories encouraging in-county evacuation and avoidance of occluded roadways.

  42. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Public Information • Event Specific Advisories to Motorists • Requires ITS and other methods of communicating with evacuees already on roadway (i.e., HAR, VMS, portable radio transmitters, radio) • Forewarn potential evacuees of what to expect at traffic bottlenecks and congested areas based on TTMS and travel demand forecasting model.

  43. HEADS UP - Operational Uses • Implementation of Evacuation Measures and Sustaining Operations • Public Information • Event Specific Advisories to Motorists • Recommend local sheltering options and alternate routes to motorists along congested roadways and in traffic queues. • Provide times to reach likely destination locations based on TTMS data and travel demand forecast model. • Advise motorist to clear roadways and seek refuges once evacuation shutdown lead times are realized.

  44. HEADS UP - In Summary • The capability to manage evacuations, not just initiate them • Allows analysis of the impacts of alternate courses of action and decision making. • More realistic estimates of regional evacuation times and impacts. • Allows real time monitoring and analysis of evacuation situation • Permits better planning for exigent situations on evacuation roadways

  45. HEADS UP - In Summary • The capability to manage evacuations, not just initiate them • Better prepare host shelter jurisdictions of potential operational needs. • Implications for Public Information (511and “Know before you Go”) Emergency Public Information (along roadways). • Possible application for other emergencies that precipitate evacuations and diversions including Nuclear Power, Terrorism, Hazmat incidents

  46. Summary • Operations AND information management • Proactive rather than reactive • Disasters = Movement Management • Includes data collection and analysis tools • Contingent on acquiring data, analyzing and interpreting it and then acting on it

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