ASCN Annual Conference

1. ASCN Annual Conference “Political Transformation and Social Change in the South Caucasus: The Case of Georgia” Political economy of emigration intentions in the countries of South Caucasus Alexi Gugushvili PhD Researcher 24-25 June, 2011 Bazaleti, Georgia

2. Is emigration important? • Migration is damaging the country • Demographic concerns, shrinking population • Economic growth, socioeconomic development • Fiscal balance, social policies, intergenerational concerns • Emigration as the measurement of life quality • This paper is concerned with covariates, not with the scope and directionof emigration

3. Migration determinants research framework • Neoclassical Economics: Difference in supply and demand for labour – Human capital theory • ‘The New Economics’ of Migration: Minimisation of risk stemming from failures of labour and other markets • Relative conditions matter – sociology of reference groups • Risk insurance matter – mainly public, but also private insurance • Migration as a coping strategy: Promotive strategy ; preventive strategy; protective strategy • Post-New Economics of Migration: Growing movement of people within developing and developed nations: desired communities, preferred life-styles, attached ideologies, etc.

4. Covariates of emigration in the South Caucasus: What do we know? • Gender • Unemployment • Poverty • International social network

5. But doesn’t political environment matter? • Are economic factors only determinants of emigration? • Undisputable links between turmoil and emigration • Does perception of political environment associate with emigration? Some evidence: In Israel support for government explains emigration intentions (Hartman and Hartman, 1995); In Albania intentions to emigrate correlate with support for market reforms (Sanfey, 2001); In Romania market and democracy values are important for emigration intentions

6. Why political vs. economic conditions should matter differently? • Armenia: Stable economic development, less changing political freedoms (2008 presidential elections, good relations with Russia) • Azerbaijan: Substantial economic development, stagnant political regime (oil-revenues, consolidating authoritarianism) • Georgia: Some political gains, stagnant socioeconomic indicators (2003 revolution, public sector reforms, Russian crisis) It seems reasonable to assume that political economy must have association with emigration

7. Some trends in socioeconomic developments Fig.1: GDP per capita (USD) Tab.1: Poverty and inequality Source: WDI (2010)

8. Some trends in political development Fig. 3: Political Rights Score Fig. 4: Civil Liberties Score Source: Freedom House (2010)

9. Hypothesis In more authoritative political environment, political attitudes are more important for emigration than economic conditions, while in more troubled economic environment economic conditions are more decisive for emigration than political attitudes

10. Micro-level survey data on migration intentions • Migration intentions – indirect analysis of migration behaviour • Growing interest in studies based on intentions data because of the difficulties in finding adequate data on actual migration • Theory of reasoned action: some evidence on correlation between intentions and behaviour from developed and developing nations • Shortcomings of migration intentions analysis: • The responses can partly reflect personal frustration, not actual ability of emigration • Future behaviour may be affected by intervening shocks • Excludes those who already emigrated

11. Database – Caucasus Barometer • Caucasus Research Resource Centers’ nationwide cross-sectional survey data in the countries of South Caucasus • Pooling 2009 and 2010 datasets allows sufficient number of cases for a comprehensive analysis of emigration intentions • Conclusions made are only associative nature, no causality can be insisted

12. Dependent variables • Y1: “If you had a chance, would you leave country for a certain period of time to live somewhere else?” Yes=1, No=0 Armenia – 55.7% Azerbaijan – 49.5% Georgia – 40.5% • Y2: “If you had a chance, would you leave country forever to live somewhere else?” Yes=1, No=0 Armenia – 23.9% Azerbaijan – 16.5% Georgia – 8.5%

13. Independent variables

14. Methodology • Binomial probit regressions through nested models • Marginal effects with robust standard errors • Post-estimation predicted probabilities

15. Table 1: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions

16. Table 1: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions (continued)

17. Table 2: Explaining variation in dependent variables (Pseudo R-squared)

18. Table 3: Big part of differences in intentions can be explained by distr. of frequencies in key variables

19. Table 4: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions – political attitudes vs. economics

20. Table 5: Political attitudes vs. economics: Comparison of significance

21. Conclusions and discussion • Emigration intentions across South Caucasus correlate with economic conditions as well as with political attitudes • In Georgia mainly economic factors explain variation in intentions, in Azerbaijan political attitudes are decisive • Equality of opportunities and building democratic institutions could correlate with lower emigration intentions and possibly with lower emigration trends • Higher emigration intentions among the young generations (cohort vs. age) might also mean that consequently these societies will become more open, liberal and democratic

22. Thank you! alexi.gugushvili@eui.eu

23. Hypothesis 2 Stratification on the labour market becomes increasingly important in South Caucasian countries, meaning that security and other characteristics of job are important for emigration H3: Emigration correlates not only with employment or unemployment, but also can be explained by the quality of jobs itself defined by, among other factors, fair compensation and general satisfaction with work.

24. Figures1 & 2: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention

25. Figures 3 & 4: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention

26. Figures 5 & 6: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention