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Plans for the prediction of extreme events at MeteoSwiss

This workshop focuses on the implementation and evaluation of COSMO-LEPS simulations for extreme events in the Alpine region. The post-processing routines for probabilistic forecast products will be discussed, along with the inter-comparison of down-scaling methods and the ECMWF EPS. Collaboration with ARPA-SMR is also highlighted.

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Plans for the prediction of extreme events at MeteoSwiss

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  1. Plans for the prediction of extreme events at MeteoSwiss Workshop on short-range ensemble prediction using limited-area models, Madrid, 3-4 October 2002 André Walser, Marco Arpagaus Jean Quiby, Christof Appenzeller, Pièrre Eckert MeteoSwiss andre.walser@meteoswiss.ch

  2. COSMO-LEPS • COSMO-LEPS simulations for selected extreme events in the Alpine region • Setting up post-processing routines for evaluation and comparison of probabilistic forecast products • Close collaboration with the colleagues at ARPA-SMR in Bologna

  3. oldest EPS middle EPS youngest EPS 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 n –1 n n+1 +2 +3 +4 +5 Short-range adaptation of COSMO-LEPS Start of COSMO-LEPS integrations COSMO-LEPS clustering times short-range clustering times (+96) 153 members (+84) (+72) day

  4. moist? EPS moist? EPS moist? EPS 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 n –1 n n+1 +2 +3 +4 +5 Short-range adaptation of COSMO-LEPS Start of COSMO-LEPS integrations COSMO-LEPS clustering times short-range clustering times number of RMs? ? members horizontal resolution? day

  5. Inter-comparison • Inter-comparison of: • short-range adaptation of COSMO-LEPS • dedicated neural network • Is dynamical (LEPS) or statistical (neural network) down-scaling of the ECMWF EPS information superior? • Are the down-scaling methods more skilful than the ECMWF EPS itself (probabilistic model output & extreme forecast index)?

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