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Workshop overview

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Workshop overview

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  1. 6th Annual International ESP Conference 2013Session 4COverview of using the tools of Mediated Modelling, Ecosystem Valuation studies and MIMES in forecasting trends on the value of ecosystem servicesMarjan van den Belt,Anne-GaelleAusseilandRoelofBoumans26-30 August 2013,Bali, Indonesia

  2. Workshop overview • Introductions (10 minutes) • Case study ; Manawatu (10 minutes) • Benefit Transfer Method (10 minutes) • Mediated Modelling (MM) (10 minutes) • Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) (20 minutes) • Coffee break (10 min) • Inter-activity (50 min)

  3. Introductions • Circulate participant list (name and email) only if happy to receive workshop results.

  4. Workshop overview • Introductions • Case study – Manawatu, New Zealand • Benefit Transfer Method • Mediated Modelling (MM) • Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) • Coffee break • Inter-activity

  5. The Manawatū River Catchment • Catchment area 594,400 ha 4 (of 9) highly erodable sub-catchments

  6. The Manawatū River Catchment 133,000 people 320,000 cows Highly modified catchment Protecting assets, livelihoods

  7. Manawatu land cover: Pre- and Post Settlement Source: Landcare Research. Complements of Anthony Cole

  8. Workshop overview • Introductions • Case study ; Manawatu • Benefit Transfer Method • Mediated Modelling (MM) • Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) • Coffee break • Inter-activity

  9. Rapid Ecosystem Service Assessments GLOBAL GDP in US94$: 18 trillion ES value in US94$: 33 trillion NEW ZEALAND ES value in NZ94$: 228 billion GDP in NZ94$: 84 billion MANAWATU-WANGANUI GDP in NZ2006$: 7.4 billion ES in NZ2006$: 6 billion Sources: Costanza et al. 1997 Patterson and Cole 1999 van den Belt et al, 2009

  10. Benefit Transfer map Ecosystems Total value per hectare

  11. Indirect vs direct value Indirect Direct

  12. Other Benefit Transfer Methods • Ecosystem Valuation Toolkit (EVT) • The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) • InVest

  13. Workshop overview • Introductions • Case study; Manawatu • Benefit Transfer Method • Mediated Modelling (MM) • Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) • Coffee break • Inter-activity

  14. Mediated Modelling ‘Model building with, rather than for, people’ Auckland Mediated Modelling, Sustainable Pathways 2, 2012

  15. IFS-MM Result Land Use / Land Cover Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture Ecosystem Services Functioning index (slider) Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Actions Erosion control (SLUI) Nutrient management Riparian Planting Waste Water Treatment Restoration Values Cost of actions Benefit Transferred ES Stakeholder dialogue

  16. IFS management scenarios

  17. Sediment loading in tonnes per year 5 Million 3 Million 1 Million 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

  18. Sediment loading in tonnes per year 5 Million 3 Million 1 Million 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

  19. Sediment loading in tonnes per year 5 Million 3 Million 1 Million 1990 2000 2013 2020 2030 2040

  20. Workshop overview • Introductions • Case study ; Manawatu • Benefit Transfer Method • Mediated Modelling (MM) • Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) • Coffee break • Inter-activity

  21. Causality within the sustainability loop + - SUPPLY Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture - - + Ecosystem Services Provided + - + Actions Pressures Demographics, Global markets, Climate change - - ES Values + Cost of actions Ecosystem Services Demanded Stakeholder dialogue DEMAND

  22. Causality for sustainable economies + - Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture - + - Ecosystem Services Provided + - - + Actions ES Values Pressures - - + + Cost of actions Ecosystem Services Demanded Economic Services + Economic Sectors +

  23. Causality for non-sustainability Economies + - Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture - - + + - Ecosystem Services Provided + - Actions Values Pressures - - + + Cost of actions Ecosystem Services Demanded Economic Services + Economic Sectors + + Subsidies

  24. Manawatu MIMES - Qualitative overview Water quality standards Rain Land environments Land cover Catchments Catchments Catchments Land use: N loading Water Water routing Hydrological model Ecosystem Services Demographics coefficients Land cover Ecosystem goods and services model Land use Conversion Land use Demographics: Built capital Demographics: population effect

  25. Manawatu MIMES – Data base links Land Environments of New Zealand (LENZ) Database Resource Management Act 1991 13 underlying climate, landform and soil variables cliflo@niwa.co.nz 8 Land covers Catchments Catchments Freshwater Ecosystems of New Zealand (FENZ GIS) WATYIELD 7 land uses 8 user groups FENZ Emergent dynamics in Ecosystem Services (see output slide 17) Demographics By ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification The New Zealand Land Cover Database Dynamics in goods and service trade-offs Land use change as emergent behavior 7x7 Land use change Input for local investment scenarios Demographics: 1 Population effect 2 Business as Usual 3 Restoration Input for land use change scenarios

  26. The Manuwatu MIMES User Interface for Scenario Modeling The Introduction Page

  27. Manawatu Land Use (ha) by Land Covers 1990

  28. Ecosystems perform Ecosystem Functions (estimated) S() S() S() S()

  29. Ecosystem services needed for economic productivity (indexed) Economic Sectors Ecosystem services

  30. Economic sectors produce Environmental Externalities (estimated)

  31. Externalities have impact on Ecosystems (estimated) Ecosystems Externalities

  32. GIS framework SUPPLY + - Forest, Wetland, Riparian, River/Lake, Impacts of Erosion, Nutrient runoff and habitat loss Urban, Dairy, Sheep&Beef, Horticulture Input Land use/cover Indicators ES Forestry Erosion control Sediment loss (NZEEM) Livestock farm types Water flow regulation Water yield (WATYIELD) Nutrient loss (OVERSEER) Natural ecosystems Clean water provision Timber production Environment Food & fibre Food production Climate Soil Habitat Provision Habitat provision

  33. Habitat provision (ecosystem service)

  34. Food supply (agricultural sector) Meat supply Milk solids supply

  35. SLUI scenario

  36. Sediment loss

  37. Nutrient loss

  38. Water yield

  39. The SLUI Scenario Run

  40. COFFEE BREAK

  41. Workshop overview • Introductions • Case study ; Manawatu • Benefit Transfer Method • Mediated Modelling (MM) • Multi-scale Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) • Coffee break • Inter-activity

  42. Toolkit assessment What are the strengths and weaknesses of the individual ESV tools, considering context, process and content? What are the opportunities and threats for a toolkit? Multi-scale Integrated Modelling Mediated Modeling Benefit Transfer Strengths Weaknesses Weaknesses Strengths Weaknesses Strengths Opportunities and Threats?

  43. Feedback survey appreciated!We’ll be in touchTHANK YOU! Marjan, Anne-Gaelle and Roel

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