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Effects of climate change on water resources in Mexico

Effects of climate change on water resources in Mexico. Jiutepec, Morelos. October 2, 2008. Outline. Introduction Goals Summary Current projects Future projects. INTRODUCTION.

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Effects of climate change on water resources in Mexico

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  1. Effects of climate change on water resources in Mexico Jiutepec, Morelos October 2, 2008

  2. Outline • Introduction • Goals • Summary • Current projects • Future projects

  3. INTRODUCTION The Federal Government elaborated the National Strategy for Climate Change (ENACC) in May 2007. The President of Mexico presented and instructed an official Commission to elaborate a Special Climate Change Program 2008 - 2012, under framework of the National Development Plan from 2007 to 2012. The issue of climate change was first included in this plan known as Eje Rector 4 on the Environmental Sustainability Program, which reflects that Government of Mexico recognizes the impact of greenhouse emissions and it is increasingly

  4. Effects of climate change on water resources in Mexico With this background, the IMTA responds to these instructions and recommendations to develop a program of Climate Change under the project titled: INTRODUCTION

  5. MAIN OBJECTIVE Quantitatively assessing of climate change effects on Mexican water resources, as well as to propose adapting strategies

  6. Working Group at IMTA Dr. Polioptro Martínez Austria (Líder del proyecto) Dr. Carlos Patiño Gómez (Coordinador) M. I. Juan Matías Chacón Dr. René Lobato Sánchez* Dr. Martín Montero Martínez Dr. Ricardo Prieto González M. C. José Luís Pérez López Dr. Aldo I. Ramírez Orozco Dr. Enrique Sánchez Camacho Dr. Waldo Ojeda Bustamante M. C. Teresa Leal Ascencio Dr. Ariosto Aguilar Chávez Dr. Rubén Morales Pérez M. I. Alexis Espinosa Gayosso Dr. Leonardo Hernández Barrios

  7. Research groups (2007-2008) Regionalization of climate projections by statistical methods. Effects of climate change on cyclonic rains in Mexico. Determine drought periods and heavy rain under several climate change scenarios in Mexico Effect of climate change on runoff. Using models of watershed management for a better policy operation Impacts of climate change on water quality. Impact of climate change in the dynamics of natural water bodies. Inventory of greenhouse gas in treatment plants Analysis of trends in sea level. Climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture. Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration.

  8. Summary

  9. Regionalization for Mexico of the GCM used in the 4th IPPC Report • Objective: To achieve climate scenarios with high resolution using downscaling techniques, in order to generate information for hydrologic models to be used in critical Mexican watersheds • Results: Regionalization of rainfall and temperature scenarios for Mexico, using GCM proposed in the 4th evaluation report of IPCC. These results were generated for period 2010-2098 using a monthly scale and a resolution of aprox 50 x 50 Km for SRES-A1B and SRES- A2 scenarios.

  10. SCENARIOS DESCRIPTION (SRES)

  11. GCAM- IPCC Monthly Precipitation anomaly For 2020´s decade SRES-A1B Regionalization (REA) = 0.5x0.5° Resolution mesh From IPCC GACM ≈ 2.5x2.5° Regionalization of GACM What are we doing based on the REA technique?

  12. Effect of climate change on runoff: Rio Conchos case study area Rio Conchos Application Area= 66,950 km2 Rio Bravo Hydrological Region Rio Conchos basin location

  13. IMPACTS ON THE DYNAMICS OF NATURAL WATER BODIES Case: Valle de Bravo Results Temperature First approach To check changes in the water bodies profiles due to temperature changes because climate change . 2060 2090 Dissolved oxygen Evaporation 2060 2090

  14. IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE • Large irrigated areas of the country are highly vulnerable to climate change because of its geographical situation and its socio-economic characteristics. At present, spatial and temporal distribution of impact of climate change has not yet been determined on irrigated agriculture in Mexico.   It is probably that a major economic impact will be presented if comprehensive strategies are not adapted

  15. Irrigation zone at north of Mexico • ScenarioIncreased temperature Decreased rainfall Greater variability in runoff • Potential impacts Increasing the EvapotranspirationChanges in crop yields Reduction of irrigated areas Increased extraction of groundwater sources

  16. Effects of climate change on water resources in Mexico Dr. Polioptro F. Martínez Austria Provides information based on more than 25 research studies recently developed by Mexican experts, including the author himself as well as authors from other countries. Through this book, the reader can form an opinion regarding the controversial issue of climate change and its effect in Mexico

  17. Budget • 2007 • $350,000 budget was approved • IMTA facilities and 15 researchers • Interaction with Universities and other groups • 2008 • Several proposals have been sent, but IMTA has not received any positive answer yet. • Around $700,000 has been spent in 2007 & 2008

  18. Current projects

  19. Temperature anomaly (oC) Based on period 1961-1990

  20. Precipitation anomaly (mm/day) Based on period 1961-1990

  21. Thank you very much!!! Jiutepec, Morelos October 2, 2008

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