Second National Communication of the Kyrgyz Republic under the UN Framework

1. Second National Communication of the Kyrgyz Republic under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Zuhra Abaihanova Climate Change Policy Adviser UNDP Environmental Programme in KR Side event: Bonn Climate Change Talks, 5 June 2009

2. Key challenges under the SNC preparation Lack of institutional, technical and financial capacity to: • maintain regular GHG inventory process • provide the long-termclimate forecasting • re-assess the long-term hydro-power potential of the country Lack of legal potential to deal with climate change issues at the sub-national and sector levels (laws, acts, methodologies) Insufficient policy-makers’ awareness and support to climate change related activities (adaptation, mitigation)

3. Main outcomes: GHG inventory Greenhouse gas inventory for2001–2005and re-assessment of the time period of 1990- 2000 Sectors: • Energy; • Industrial processes; • Use of solvents and other production; • Agriculture; • Land use, land use change and forestry; • Wastes. GHGs:CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC,PFC, SF6 Gases-precursors: CO, NOx, NMVOC, SOx

4. GHG emission sum per sectors

5. Total emission of gases-precursors per gases

6. Main outcomes: Vulnerability and Adaptation Observed climate change for 1885-2005, centigrade. According to the assessment based on the instrumental observations from 1883 to 2005, an average temperature trend for the republic made up 0.79°С for 100 years. In average, by the end of the century the air temperature will increase from 4°С to 6°С. Precipitation will change in the range of-3% to +2%.

7. Vulnerability and Adaptation Sectors: • Water resources Vulnerability indicators - parameters of glaciers, volume ofthe surface water-flow, parameters of lakes • Agriculture Vulnerability indicators- heat availability, productivity ofvarious types of crops and pastures • Population health Vulnerability indicators– morbidity and mortality rate • Climatic emergency situations Vulnerability indicators- frequency of mudflows,landslides, breaches ofhigh-mountainous and glacial lakes, avalanches

8. V&A: Water resources Glaciers number: The 60th – about8200 2100 - 142-1484 Glaciers volume: 2000 - 420 cubic km 2100 - 40-170 cubic km Surface water flow: Current status – 47 cubic km 2100 - 24-33 cubic km

9. State of glaciation by 2100As compared to the Glacier Catalogue of the 60s. Extant glaciers marked with dark blue, the melted marked with red.

10. V&A: Agriculture

11. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 V&A: Agriculture Crops productivity Assessment of change trends in the main crops productivity till 2100 per regions

12. V&A: Population health Vulnerability assessment covered only such diseases, as: cardiovascular diseases, acute intestinal infections, and malignant neoplasms. Increase in morbidity and mortality rates connected to cardiovascular diseases, acute intestinal infections. Forecast for cancer morbidity revealed the opposite dependencies (increased for women and slightly reduced for men). Groups of risk – children and aged people.

13. Expected monthly average morbidity rate for acute intestinal infections in Bishkek city under two climatic scenarios (per 100 thousand people) V&A: Population health Expected average annual morbidity rate for cardiovascular system diseases for Chui region (per 100 thousand people)

14. V&A: Dynamics of emergency situations for expected climate change

15. Main outcome: Climate change mitigation Assessment ofGHG emissions under three scenarios of the Republic’s development: • A - with no mitigation actions been undertaken, i.e. with preservation of all existing conditions and correlations at the national level, but in view of worldwide tendencies of technologies development; • В - taking into account the mitigation actions defined in the national and sector development plans; • С - taking into account the mitigation actions in line with the national and sector development plans, as well as additional actions to be undertaken within long-term outlook.

16. Estimated cost and expected emission reduction in 2100 from the measures stipulated in the national and sector development plans and from additional measures

17. Experience and lessons learnt • The methodologies for estimation of GHG emission from the sources not covered by the IPCCC Guidelines have been developed and used – blast works, antimony and mercury production, secondary metal fusion; inventory time series continued; • Assessment of retrospective climate change tendencies has been done by means of the national method - method of annual changes analysis – and gave a possibility to use all available observations.That helped to receive a continuous line of climate change trends since 1983. • Synergy in collaboration with other relevant activities in the country and programme approach have effectively resulted in incorporation of the SNC developments and recommendations into the Country Development Strategy and other strategic development documents at the national, sub-national and local levels.

18. Recommended studies under the TNC • GHG inventory time series continued; • Fuller vulnerability assessment for the population health at the national level ( the SNC studies are of fragmentary character as cover separate regions and the capital); • Vulnerability assessment for the sector of agriculture with a use of modeling methods (i.e. modeling of crop productivity assessment related to CC) • Re-assessment of hydro-power potential of the country in view of the long-term CC forecast, as well as agricultural needs, water distribution at the CA regional level, etc.

19. Thank you for your kind attention!