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California High Speed Rail Team 1

California High Speed Rail Team 1. January 26, 2012. Ridership Projections. Based on Exhibit 9 data for Intercity Trips LA to SF route Daily trips of approximately 55,000 in 2000 and 2030 Yearly total of 20,100,000 trips per year Assume Normally distributed with std of 5% total.

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California High Speed Rail Team 1

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  1. California High Speed Rail Team 1 January 26, 2012

  2. Ridership Projections • Based on Exhibit 9 data for Intercity Trips • LA to SF route • Daily trips of approximately 55,000 in 2000 and 2030 • Yearly total of 20,100,000 trips per year • Assume Normally distributed with std of 5% total

  3. Ridership Projections • Based on Exhibit 12 Marketshare Projections • Given HSR marketshare of 53% when ticket prices are 50% of Air Travel • Assume uniform distribution between 48% and 58% • Assume loss of 30% of HSR marketshare when prices increased to 77% of Air Travel

  4. Revenue Projections • Use Exhibit 12 Average One-Way Airtravel for SF to LA • Assume $130 cost in $2008 • HSR fares assumed $65 and $100.1 for the 2 pricing scenarios

  5. Risk Projections

  6. Revenue Projections

  7. Risk Projections • Summary of Risks • 1. Low risk in change of percentage in daily trips • 2. Highest risk in % market share due to strong impact in revenue • 3. Medium Risk in changing costs in airfare

  8. Risk Factors for commuters traffic • Airfare is not a competition • Time for travel becomes more of a consideration • Highway congestion • Cost of daily commute for vehicles

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