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Proposed Revisions to Fuel Price Forecasts: Natural Gas and Oil

This document discusses the proposed revisions to the council's fuel price forecasts for natural gas and oil, comparing them to more recent forecasts and historical data. It also analyzes other factors such as delivery costs, capacity release rates, and firm supply for electricity generation.

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Proposed Revisions to Fuel Price Forecasts: Natural Gas and Oil

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  1. Proposed Revisions to Council’s Fuel Price Forecasts Natural Gas Advisory Committee June 27, 2007

  2. 5th Plan Natural Gas PriceCompared to More Recent

  3. 5th Plan Natural Gasand Proposed Revision

  4. Revised Natural Gas Price Forecast Compared to Others

  5. Natural Gas Price(2006$/MMBtu)

  6. Western Natural Gas Prices

  7. Natural Gas Prices to PNW

  8. Basis Differentials

  9. West-Side Delivery Cost

  10. East-Side Delivery Cost

  11. Other Assumptions • LCD delivery cost for large customer? • Capacity release rates? • What share of firm pipeline capacity cost might be recovered from release market? • Incremental long-term capacity cost? • Any firm gas supply premium? Share of firm supply for electricity generator?

  12. 5th Plan Oil Price RangeCompared to Recent Forecasts

  13. Proposed Revisionof Oil Price Forecast

  14. Revised Oil Price ForecastCompared to Other Recent Forecasts

  15. World Oil Price(2006$/Barrel)

  16. Revised Coal Price Forecast Compared to AEO 2007

  17. Coal Price Forecast Rangeand Assumed Growth Rates

  18. Comparative Fuel PricesIndustrial Sector

  19. Historical Comparative Prices

  20. Ratio of Real Crude Price Per Barrel to Wellhead NG Price Per MMBtu

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