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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Market Review

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Market Review. SECTION I. ACCESS DEVICES WIRELESS INTERACTIVE TV. Wireless Internet Technologies. Technology in Use: WAP: industry standard, based on circuit switcing, mainly for GSM networks i-Mode: proprietary technology of DoCoMo, based on packet transmission

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EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES Market Review

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  1. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIESMarket Review

  2. SECTION I ACCESS DEVICES WIRELESS INTERACTIVE TV

  3. Wireless Internet Technologies • Technology in Use: • WAP: industry standard, based on circuit switcing, mainly for GSM networks • i-Mode: proprietary technology of DoCoMo, based on packet transmission • Standard in Development: GPRS • Packet switching protocol, applicable on existing GSM networks

  4. Problems With WAP • Connection slow and Unreliable • Expensive due to circuit switching • Data transfer at 9.6 Kpbs is slow for surfing • Screen size & ease of navigation • Processing power of handsets Did not catch on with consumers

  5. Advantages of i-Mode • Connection “always on” • Lower cost due to packet switching • Data transfer speed high • Tried & tested Favourable User Reception

  6. GPRS: Next Winner? • Combines best elements of WAP and i-Mode • Works, like WAP, on GSM networks • Packet switched like i-Mode • Supports “always on” connection • Lower cost, charge by data • Launched in mid-2000, market reception to be seen

  7. MobileTechnology Time Frame 2000 WAP GPRS 3G Concentrates mobile industry on connectivity & inter-operability Starts Consumer Interest in Data Services Introduces packet-based systems Commercial data services launched Usage indicates demand picture and leads the way to 3G Data speeds reach levels eough for streaming Platforms & technologies evolve, costs decline to reach mass market 2001 2003

  8. Turkish Market Growing Fast • Penetration will reach 20% by year-end 2000 • Expected to approach 50% by 2009

  9. Competition & Services • Little competition so far: • Two operators share the market since 1994: Turkcell (68%) and Telsim (32%) • Operators target subscriber numbers, little service differentiation • Prepaid cards introduced recently : Low-revenue but very popular with new users

  10. Competition Heats Up • Two new operators to enter market in 2001: • IşBank-TIM joint Venture (Aria) • Türk Telekom Mobile (Ay-cell) • TTMobile to allow back-door access for conglomerates • Infrastructure and operations to be subcontracted on revenue sharing basis • Bidders include Koç-Nortel & Sabanci-Doğuş-Alcatel consortia

  11. Revenue Threat in Mobile Voice • New Users Bring Lower Revenue: Despite growth in numbers, average revenue per user (ARPU) declining • Prepaid ARPU is one third of post-paid • Prepaid market share expected to reach 50% by 2003 • Customer acquisition costs are increasing and will further go up due to new entrants

  12. Wireless Will Move to Data • New Goal: Increase usage instead of subscriber numbers • Usage can be increased by data services: • Consumer internet access • E-mail services • Wireless portals • E-commerce

  13. Possible Role for Companies • Where is the server? Mobile Operator’s Server Co’s Wireless Server Here? MOBILE NETWORK Does the wireless operator control access or does it allow access for others? Co’s Wireless Server Or Here?

  14. Emerging Web Access: iTV • Crowded Space in Europe • Major players: Murdoch ( Open TV, BSkyB), Vivendi Universal ( Canal+) • Initial investment requirement high, hinders rapid deployment • Delivery through Cable or Satellite

  15. Cable Vs. Satellite • Cable: • provides higher security • better equipped to deal with two way traffic • Infrastructure expensive to install • Satellite • Carousel structure implies no real-time access • Back channel via telephone, creating user inconvenience and security

  16. Satellite Structure Operator pulls applications to the carousel Pushes applications to the consumer Internet Telephone as back channel: connectivity & security problems

  17. Cable TV in Turkey • Türk Telekom built initial infrastructure, then granted operating concessions to four operating companies • Cable infrastructure passes 1,9 million homes, of which 800,000 are subscribers • Operating companies controlled by: • Erol Aksoy • Uzan Family • Koç-Doğan jv.

  18. Cable TV in Turkey –2 • Cost Advantage for Operating companies: Avoided heavy initial infrastructure costs • Ratio of homes passed still low at 13%, additional capacity requires heavy investment • Only analogue TV and internet access now, iTV requires settop box investment • Will remain small until large capital inflow • Consolidation likely

  19. Satellite TV in Turkey • Satellite broadcasing picks up in 2000. • Players: • Stardigital (the Uzan family) claims 300,000 subscribers, benefits from football franchise • Digitürk (Çukurova Group) launched in 2000 • Both plan to launch interactive service with technology to be provided by Open TV • Doğan had plans for entry in late 2000.

  20. Prospects of Satellite • All satellite companies target the same 5 million households • Investment estimated at $100-150 million • Competiton for market share prevents companies fron passing investment costs on to consumers • Market not large enough to support three players, given large upfront investment amount.

  21. SECTION II FRONT-END VENDORS Software Vendors Platform Providers System Integrators

  22. Software Solutions • User Demand shifted from higher productivity to increased sales and service • Value proposition no longer ROI cost saving, but time to implement application • Customers’ main goal: time-to-market • Growing players: • Packaged Enterprise Applications • System Integrators

  23. Evolution of Software App. Packaged Applications Complete Platform Integrated Application Customer Relationship Content Management Point Solution Build In-House Transaction Processing 1999 2001E

  24. Integrated e-commerce architecture CRM Legacy System Personal. Content Mngmt Customer Support B2B or B2C

  25. Customer Interaction Software • Market Segment & “Best-of-breed”: • CRM: Siebel • Personalization:Broadvision • Content Management:Vignette • Real-Time Messaging: Tibco • Vendors try to develop in all segments, but “best-of-breed” aligned with partners in complimentary segments

  26. B2B Platforms • Two Leading Platform Providers • Commerce One • Ariba • Develop Alliances: • With other vendors to increase functionality • With system integrators to reduce time to market • With industry leaders to promote marketplaces

  27. Commerce One Sun for operating Platform SAP to integrate purchasing Citigroup for payment systems Ariba IBM and i2 for system integration Amex for payment systems B2B Alliances

  28. Traditional IT consultants IBM Global Services EDS Andersen Consulting CAP Gemini Start-up integrators Sapient Marchfirst iXL Scient Viant Mphasis System Integrators

  29. Turkish Vendors • Software Vendors: Medium size companies developing enterprise software for SME’s • Logo • Link • Integrators: • Koc Sistem • Meteksan • Low-end Integrators: • Servus • Probil

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