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Dworshak Water Supply Forecast – 2007 Update

Dworshak Water Supply Forecast – 2007 Update. Randy Wortman – 28 Feb 2007. Previous Models. NRCS93 (Garen) 1961-1992 data Using SOI and PC Regression NRCS95 (Garen) 1961-1995 data Dropped Elk River 1S November precipitation from 1-Dec equation NRCS99 (Moore) 1965-1999

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Dworshak Water Supply Forecast – 2007 Update

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  1. Dworshak Water Supply Forecast – 2007 Update Randy Wortman – 28 Feb 2007

  2. Previous Models • NRCS93 (Garen) • 1961-1992 data • Using SOI and PC Regression • NRCS95 (Garen) • 1961-1995 data • Dropped Elk River 1S November precipitation from 1-Dec equation • NRCS99 (Moore) • 1965-1999 • Changes to many variables

  3. Dworshak Forecast Models and Data Years Utilized NWD2005 (Wortman) 44 NRCS99 (Moore) 35 NRCS95 (Garen) 35 NRCS93 (Garen) 32 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Calibration Period

  4. Model Comparison

  5. DworshakWater Supply Forecast WY 2007

  6. Variables used in Dworshak WSF 1-Dec: Mostly Precipitation 1-Jan: Mostly Precipitation, Some Snow 1-Feb: No Precipitation, Mostly Snow Stations

  7. Dworshak Basin Snow Stations 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Jan 1-Feb

  8. 88%

  9. Dworshak Water Supply Forecast WY 2007(1-March Sneak Preview!!)UNOFFICIAL EARLY-BIRD FORECAST

  10. DWR ESP Flows for 27 Feb 2007 ESP Forecasts: Average Apr-Jul Vol=2536 KAF 1/6th of time > 2800 KAF 1/6th of time < 2272 KAF

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