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NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Procedure for Dworshak Inflow

NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Procedure for Dworshak Inflow. Steve King, Hydrologist Rick van der Zweep, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center. NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Process. Regression Model Stepwise linear Combined Index vs Observed Flows Manual Adjustment Forecasts QC inputs

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NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Procedure for Dworshak Inflow

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  1. NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Procedure for Dworshak Inflow Steve King, Hydrologist Rick van der Zweep, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center

  2. NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Process • Regression Model • Stepwise linear • Combined Index vs Observed Flows • Manual Adjustment • Forecasts QC inputs • Forecasters adjust output based on a variety of inputs • Inter-basin Cross Plots • Forecast Coordination

  3. RegressionModel Step-wise Linear Approach Combined Index incorporates: Precip, Snow, & Runoff

  4. Feb 1 Fcst Mar 1 Fcst Single Equation for Entire Forecast Period One Single Equation Applied Through Forecast Season Observed Precip, Snow, Runoff Normal Subsequent Precip

  5. Dworshak Forecast Components(Feb 1, 2007 states) • Oct-Nov Fall Runoff • Natural Flow = 174% • Feb 1 Snow Water Equivalent (70% Combined Winter Precip Term) • Pierce (.27 rel wt) = 77% • Shanghai Summit (.20 rel wt) = 86% • Lolo Pass (.19 rel wt) = 86% • Hoodoo Creek (.11 rel wt) = 83% • Lost Lake (.10 rel wt) = 82 • Nov-Jan Precipitation (30% Combined Winter Precip Term) • Avery R.S. (.40 rel wt) = % • Orofino (.30 rel wt) = % • Pierce (.30 rel wt) = % • Kooskia R.S. (.25 rel wt) = % • Fenn R.S. (.20 rel wt) = % • Feb-Jun Mean Subsequent Precipitation • Assumption of 80% Normal for February • Assumption of 100% Normal for March-June Weighted Mean = 82% Seasonal Wt Mean = 124%

  6. 2.46 MAF (93%) Dworshak WS Forecast Trend

  7. 2.43 MAF (92%) Dworshak ESP Forecast Trend

  8. 2002 2006 2003 2004 Observed Adj. Apr-Jul Volume (KAF) 2005 2001 Feb Final Forecast, Apr-Jul Period (KAF) Dworshak Forecast VerificationFeb 1 Final Forecast of Apr-Jul Period

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