Managing the global ocean as a system: role of the high seas

1. Managing the global ocean as a system: role of the high seas U. Rashid Sumaila Fisheries Economics Research Unit Sea Around Us project Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada r.sumaila@fisheries.ubc.ca Conference in Honour of Ivar Ekeland, June 18-20, 2014

2. Ivar and Me • We can communicate in Norwegian: • The story of how we met Ivar. • We both love the ocean and fish: • Norse, Ekeland, Sumaila & others (2012). Sustainability of deep sea fisheries. Marine Policy, 36, 307–320. • We believe we need to find better ways to discount the future: • Ekeland, Karp, and Sumaila (forthcoming). Equilibrium resource management with altruistic overlapping generations. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.

3. Outline of talk • Our oceans: • How important are they to us? • Are our interactions with them sustainable? • What is the economic cost of unsustainability? • Managing the global ocean requires a system approach.

4. Our oceans are our lives • 60% of the world’s population lives within 60 km of the coast; • 50% of the oxygen we breathe generated by the ocean; • Regulation of earth’s climate; • Crucial for the Earth’s environmental balance & survival.

5. Our oceans are our lives L.Teh • Cultural and spiritual values; • Transport/shipping; • Playing grounds for many of us; • Support jobs; livelihoods & incomes; • Source of animal protein for many. D. Varkey

6. Capture fisheries Aquaculture Fishing ports and jetties Fish as base for many activities Seafood processing Fish stocks Marine research Management Marine manufacturing & services, boat building Recreational fisheries & tourism

7. Importance of fish to food security • Annual ocean fish catch is ~80 million t; • Fish is a good source of protein, micro-nutrients, minerals and essential fatty acids; • Provides 3 billion people up to 15% of dietary animal protein; • For low-income food-deficit countries, the contribution of fish to total animal intake is nearly 20%. FAO, State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (2009)

8. Economic contributions of fisheries Gross revenues from marine capture fisheries worldwide are estimated at between US$ 80 and 85 billion annually (FAO, 2009); Total impact throughout the global economy is between US$ 220 and 235 billion in 2003 (Dyck & Sumaila, 2010).

9. Marine fisheries employment 260 million people worldwide involved in marine fisheries, including direct and indirect sector Top 10 countries providing marine employment Teh and Sumaila (2011): Fish and Fisheries

10. Human-ocean interactions unsustainable

11. Climate change impacts Physical/Chemical changes in the ocean Biological / ecological changes in the ocean • ↑ Sea temperature; • ↑ acidification; • Δ ocean current pattern; • Δ salinity; • retreat of sea ice; • ↑ coastal hypoxic & oxygen min. zone; • ↑ sea level. Cheung, Watson & Pauly (2012): Nature

12. Examples of unsustainability • About 20% of the original area of coral reefs lost (Wilkinson, 2008); • Sea grasses are disappearing at a rate of 110km2 yr-1 since 1980 (Waycott, 2009); • Seaweeds in Zanzibar dying as I speak – climate change blamed; huge economic and social consequences for many on the island especially women; • Habitat destruction from bottom trawling.

13. Global fish catch and effort 90 80 70 60 Catch Catch (million tonnes) 50 40 30 20 10 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

14. Global fish catch and effort 25 90 80 20 70 60 Catch 15 Catch (million tonnes) 50 Effort (GW or watts x 109) 40 10 30 20 5 Effective effort* 10 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 *Effective effort indexed on 2000 based on average 2.42% increase annually Watson et al. (2012): Fish and Fisheries

15. Company financial data • Dataset contains information on: • 1000 top global fishing companies operating in 43 countries, including many leading maritime countries; • Total annual sales value for all companies is about $21 billion or 25% of estimated landed value worldwide. • We analyzed pre-tax profit. Plimsoll (2011)

16. Summary of pre-tax profit data 80 Percent 60 40 20 0 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 B: Pre-tax profit share of sales for 43 fishing countries A: Pre-tax profit share of sales for 1000 fishing companies Sumaila et al. (2012): PLoS One

17. Subsidies • Beneficial subsidies (‘investment’ programs in fish stocks); • Capacity-enhancing (harmful) subsidies (‘disinvestment’ programs in fish stocks); • Ambiguous subsidies (programs may benefit or harm fish stocks). Khan et al. (2006); Sumaila & Pauly (2006)

18. Global subsidy estimate Sumaila et al. (2010): J. Bioeconomics

19. Gains from global fisheries The current picture: • Overcapacity in world’s fishing fleets • Negative economic benefits when full cost of fishing is accounted for (Sumaila et al., 2012: PLoS One). www.thehindu.com

20. Global Potential Catch Loss (in million metric t) Srinivasan et al. (2010): J. Bioeconomics

21. Food security implications • Loss of million t of fish per year due to overfishing and other impacts has huge food security implications; • It is estimated that more effective management of global fish stocks could create food to avert undernourishment for about 19 million people worldwide. Srinivasan et al. (2010): J. Bioeconomics

22. Managing the global ocean requires a system approach

23. L.Teh Strong human-ocean connection Ocean Environment Human well-being

24. Nudge stakeholders to cooperate Annual shared fisheries catch and landed value across all countries 1950-2006 (Teh & Sumaila, in submission.) Munro (1979): Canadian J. Economics; Sumaila (2013): Book

25. Climate change fisheries & aquaculture Cheung et al. (2009) Fish & Fisheries 10: 235-251

26. Buy insurance by protecting a sizable portion of the ocean (e.g., Lauck et al., 1996)

27. High seas vs. Exclusive Economic Zones Exclusive economic zones (light blue) and high seas (dark blue)

28. Highly connected nature of marine ecosystems & their fisheries Block et al (2011) Nature Doi:10.1038/nature10082 Why the ocean is important.

29. Coastal vs. high seas fisheries Breakdown of high seas and EEZ fisheries (annual average over the period 2000-2010) C) Landed Value A) Number of species B) Catch Implication – close high seas to fishing? Sumaila et al. (In submission.)

30. Carbon sequestration versus fish value • High seas sequesters about 0.448 billion tonnes of carbon annually; • Equivalent to 1.644 million tonnes of CO2; • Using the social costs of carbon we can estimate a rough value of this ecosystem service; • $148 billion per annum (range of $74 - $222 billion); • High seas fish catch value $16 billion (10 million tonnes).

31. The high seas & intra-generational equity: 70% of LV by top 10

32. Valuation & equity between generations “Egoism is the law of perspectives as it applies to feelings according to which what is closest to us appears to be large and weighty, while size and weight decreasewith our distance from things” (attributed to Nietzche, 1844-1900). Future benefits from today’s perspective Value Present Future Discounting in economics

33. Concluding remarks Came from D.C. where I attended Sec. John Kerry’s Ocean Conference: Our Ocean 2014. You can find the Secretary’s opening remarks here: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2014/06/227692.htm • President Obama announced: • the creation of ~ 2 mil. km2 of marine protected areas; • that his administration is to ensure that all fish sold in the US is legal and traceable • The President of Kiribati: his country will ban commercial fishing in its waters; • The President of Palau: his country will create a National Marine Sanctuary that encompasses 80% of its waters.

34. Merci!Gratulere Med Dagen, Ivar!