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Edi Satriyanto,M.Si

Forecasting. Teknik Peramalan dan aplikasinya. Edi Satriyanto,M.Si. Pendahuluan. Forecasting = Peramalan(perkiraan) mengenai sesuatu yg belum terjadi. Syarat datanya: data yg akan diramal tdk boleh random(acak).Artinya harus memiliki Pola. Mengapa perlu meramal: Unsur ketidak pastian

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Edi Satriyanto,M.Si

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  1. Forecasting Teknik Peramalan dan aplikasinya Edi Satriyanto,M.Si

  2. Pendahuluan • Forecasting = Peramalan(perkiraan) mengenai sesuatu yg belum terjadi. • Syarat datanya: data yg akan diramal tdk boleh random(acak).Artinya harus memiliki Pola. • Mengapa perlu meramal: • Unsur ketidak pastian • Untuk perencanaan kedepan • Sbg salah satu alat DSS

  3. Metode • Forecast dgn Smooting • Metode Dekomposisi • Forecast dengan Metode Input Output • Auto Regresi dan Autoregresi • ARIMA • Regresi

  4. Metode Forecast Dgn Smooting • Metode Single Moving Average

  5. Contoh Soal

  6. Sifat-Sifat Single Moving Average • Memerlukan data historis selama jangka waktu tertentu. • Semakin panjang jangka waktu moving average akan menghasilkan moving average yg semakin halus.

  7. Menghitung Forecast Error • Absolut Error • Squared error

  8. Double Moving Average

  9. Tugas:Take Home(UTS) • 1).Buat program moving average a. Cari studi kasus utk data dilap(asal data ditulis). b. Entri datanya dan cari hasil peramalannya. c. Cari Errornya dgn metode Square Errror 2). Analisa data studi kasus anda dgn beberapa metode forecast yg ada.Gunakan Minitab.Bandingkan hasilnya, cari model yang mnrt anda paling baik. Nb. Dikumpulkan tgl 31 Mei 2007 Cover,print out data-pengolahan data dan analisa serta kesimpulan.

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