From scenario planning to scenario network mapping

1. From scenario planning to scenario network mapping Dennis List ECIC, University of Adelaide NZSSES Conference, February 2006

2. Outline of presentation • This presentation will cover four approaches to scenario planning – three conventional, and one new. • Conventional: expert scenarios • Conventional: standardized scenarios • Conventional: critical uncertainties method • New: scenario network mapping (from DL)

3. Theoretical basis of scenarios • This is a slide for academics (others: look away!) • Not a solid basis of theory. But Wendell Bell’s Foundations of Futures Studies (1997) attempts this from one angle, my thesis (2005) from another. • Difficult to apply theoretical orientation (“Why…”) to the future. • First used by RAND institute for anticipating World War III etc. Originator: Herman Kahn (caricatured as Dr Strangelove in the film of that name).

4. Conventional methods Conventional scenario methods share these attributes: > Usually 3 or 4 scenarios, minimum 2, maximum 7. > Each scenario is elaborated in quite a lot of detail – typically 5 to 10 pages. > Each scenario is quite separate – they don’t interlink. > Snapshots of future states – not chains.

5. Scenario Now Scenario Scenario Time Conventional scenario diagram

6. Expert scenarios (1) An 8-step method made famous in the 1970s by Shell Oil, and written up by Peter Schwartz in his 1991 book The Art of the Long View. 1. Identify the issue - seems obvious, but vital to get correct scope; often too narrow. 2. Identify key factors in the future of that issue. 3. Identify broad driving forces (e.g. demographics, trends, technologies) - “unstoppable forces”. 4. Rank key factors and driving forces on uncertainty and potential impact.

7. Expert scenarios (2) 5. Develop scenario logics. Trial and error process, till broad scenarios are logically cohesive. 6. Develop scenario details - flesh out scenarios in relation to items 2 and 3 above. Ensure plausibility. 7. Consider implications. Run current issues for decision through each scenario - feasible? Vulnerable? High-risk? 8. Identify leading indicators that will tell if an anticipated scenario is unfolding.

8. Standardized scenarios In scenario work, some sets of scenarios occur over and over again – so why not assume they will apply in any new case? Some of the perennial scenarios: • “Business as usual” (never eventuates) • An ideal situation (for the organization commissioning the scenarios) • Doomsday situation.

9. Critical uncertainties (1) Now the most common method, perhaps because simple instructions exist – no experts needed. (But that’s a trap, too.) Step 1. List trends and situations likely to affect the entity being studied. Step 2. Group them in a 2 x 2 matrix: critical / not critical BY more certain / uncertain Step 3. From the uncertain & critical quadrant, choose the 2 or 3 most important trends etc. These form the axes for the scenarios.

10. High A Low A Critical uncertainties (2) Step 4. If you chose 2 variables (A and B), now create a 2x2 matrix of these, with 4 quadrants… High B Low B

11. Critical uncertainties (3) Step 5. Each quadrant represents a scenario. Example: future of IT in 2000, by Doug Randall in Long Range Planning (1997). Axes were: a. Interactive vs passive computing b. Mass use vs minority use The 4 scenarios were: - Web Worlds: interactive, mass appeal, entertaining - Nano-segmentation: passive: specialized minority use - Crumbling walls: passive: integration of content with media - Wild wild web: interactive, chaotic, lawless And the outcome?

12. Problems with conventional scenarios • As with Randall example, often all scenarios apply simultaneously. • No interconnections between scenarios - each is a separate “world”. • Too cumbersome (Shell takes >1 year to develop) and inflexible. • Therefore not easily changed to match unexpected circumstances. • Maybe better to try a completely different approach...

13. Scenario network mapping • Many small scenarios, instead of a few large ones (easily replaced or modified) • Emphasis on interlinking, not stand-alone • Relatively quick and easy to develop • Time-related chaining is important - concept of event trees adapted from development evaluation • Scenarios begin in the past (present is uncertain) • Pathways rather than large scenarios • Includes multiple backcasting and futures wheel

14. A B Event A B A B Basic unit: the event tree • Each putative event / trend / situation has multiple causes and multiple effects • Event trees can be linked together

15. From event trees to a network Multiple starting points Multiple endpoints Branching input and output nodes (event trees)

16. Mapping the scenarios • A scenario network map is a linked collection of events. • Typically collect about 200 events, and summarize to about 40-50, grouped into several pathways - which can be similar to standardized scenarios - e.g. for a service club they were grouped as continuation, adaptation, and transformation. • Scenarios (event trees) can be briefly explained, as the links provide detail.

17. A 3-layered network • Each link is now explored. Principle: the human future is driven by humans. • How exactly would event A lead to event B? What actor group could make it happen? What means could they use? And why would they do it? • 2nd layer down (below events) = motives, intentions, drivers. • Bottom layer = where those motives come from: worldviews, values, perceptions & misperceptions • Similar to Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah).

18. More rogue states emerge Sept 2001 attacks on US US worries about more attacks US threatens Iraq B A Other powers put sanctions on US US loses [unlikely] J AE O C I Terrorism increases Z W E Iraq doesn’t comply (enough) Successful US colony US attacks Iraq Afghan régime ousted K AB D Al Qaida blamed U US bombs Iran, Libya, Syria... P Some rogue states reform AF AA H L Trouble-some US colony Gulf war 1991 Iraq defies sanctions AC Terrorism lessens Q X L V US military attention tied up F G Other countries mediate Unrest among Kurds and Shiites Sanctions on Iraq R M Anti-US coup in another country X Iraq complies without war AG AH Unrelated crisis occurs Y AD Iran and Turkey drawn into the conflict T Iraq split into 3: Sunni, Shia, Kurd N US loses interest in Iraq Saddam stays on S Feb 2003 Example: Iraq war (beforehand)