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This report provides an update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon System. It includes information on rainfall patterns over the past 90 days, 30 days, and 7 days, as well as forecasts and climatology. Severe rainfall deficits in southern peninsular India and parts of Australia are discussed, along with the impact on agricultural output and farmers' lives. The report also highlights the predicted above-normal rainfall for northwestern Australia and southeastern China in the upcoming weeks.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 09, 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over southern peninsular India, especially along coastal Tamilnadu state, and over large parts of central, northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is at above normal levels over much of the region, especially eastern China, the Philippines and large parts of Indonesia.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall was below normal over southern Sumatra and southeastern Queensland, but above normal over northwestern Australia. Elsewhere the rainfall pattern is mixed.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, as predicted last week, many parts of northern Australia received heavy rainfall. The northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) is officially over southern peninsular India and ended with severe rainfall deficits and severe drought thus affecting the agricultural output and loss of hundreds of farmers’ lives in the state of Tamilnadu, India.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over southern peninsular India, especially along coastal Tamilnadu state, and over large parts of central, northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is at above normal levels over much of the region, especially eastern China, the Philippines and large parts of Indonesia. For the past 30 days the rainfall was below normal over southern Sumatra and southeastern Queensland, but above normal over northwestern Australia. Elsewhere in the large monsoon region, the rainfall pattern is mixed. In this past week, as predicted last week, many parts of northern Australia received heavy rainfall. The northeast winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) is officially over southern peninsular India and ended with severe rainfall deficits and severe drought thus affecting the agricultural output and loss of hundreds of farmers’ lives in the state of Tamilnadu, India, according to news media reports. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall for northwestern Australia and southeastern China.
