1 / 19

2008 Election

2008 Election. Prof. B. Jones. Outcome. As of 1:19 PM, Nov. 5 (from CNN) Obama: 63,568,329 (349 ECV) McCain: 56,198,499 (162 ECV) Missouri, North Carolina TCTC Map from NYT. Presidential Race. Vote Shares (from New York Times ) Nationally Obama: 52% McCain: 47%

deacon
Download Presentation

2008 Election

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 2008 Election Prof. B. Jones

  2. Outcome • As of 1:19 PM, Nov. 5 (from CNN) • Obama: 63,568,329 (349 ECV) • McCain: 56,198,499 (162 ECV) • Missouri, North Carolina TCTC • Map from NYT

  3. Presidential Race • Vote Shares (from New York Times) • Nationally • Obama: 52% • McCain: 47% • Selected States (Obama): • California: 61% • Florida: 51% • North Carolina: 50%* • Ohio: 51% • Georgia: 46% • Wyoming: 33% • Utah: 34% • Arizona: 45%

  4. House and Senate • Senate: Dem—56, Rep—40 (+5 Dem) • 4 States TCTC: Mn., Ak., Or., Ga. • House: Dem—254, Rep—173 (+19 Dem) • Implications? • What is Lieberman’s future in the Senate? • What is the Senate’s magic number? (And why?) • Ted Stevens in Alaska?

  5. California • Obama: 61 percent McCain: 37 percent • Selected Counties: Obama Vote • Yolo: 67% • Sacramento: 59% • Marin: 78% • San Mateo: 74% • San Francisco: 85% • Los Angeles: 69% • San Diego: 54% • San Bernardino: 50% • Solano: 64%

  6. California • Selected Counties: McCain Vote • Modoc: 68% • Lassen: 65% • Fresno: 49.2% • Orange: 51% • Del Norte: 52% • Madera: 56% • Mariposa: 55% • El Dorado: 54%

  7. California Ballot Issues: 4 and 8 • Prop 4: Parental Notification: 47.9% Yes • Yolo: 36% Yes • Prop 8: Gay Marriage Ban: 52.4% Yes • Yolo: 41% Yes • San Francisco: 24% Yes • Sacramento: 54% Yes • Modoc: 74% Yes

  8. Obama Counties and Prop 8 Counties • Imperial: 57% Obama; 70% Yes • Persons of Hispanic Origin: 75.7 Percent • Riverside: 50% Obama; 63% Yes • Persons of Hispanic Origin: 42.1 Percent • San Bernadino: 52% Obama; 67% Yes • Persons of Hispanic Origin: 46 Percent • Inference? • Hard to say until we know turnout. • But an interesting question wrt Latino turnout and Prop 8 • Sacramento: 59% Obama; 54% Yes • No “red counties” went “No” on Prop 8 • Several “blue counties” went “Yes” on Prop 8

  9. Presidential Election • Of Historic Proportions • Some Demographics and the Obama Vote (based on Exit Polls): • Men: 49-48 (Obama first number) • Women: 56-43 • Race/Ethnicity • White: 43-55 • Black: 95-4 • Hispanic: 66-31 • Asian: 62-35

  10. Presidential Election: Age • Age (what are your predictions?) • 18-29: 66% • 30-44: 53% • 45-59: 49% • 60+: 46% • Implications?

  11. Presidential Election: Final Polls

  12. Latinos and the 2008 Election • Analysis just released today by Pew • Let’s consider some statistics… • Estimated Vote Share and Voting Behavior Data from Exit Polls • As a proportion of the total electorate:

  13. Monolithic Voting? • Not quite…but in some states, clearly. • Recall African-American vote break-down however. • Some selected states: 2004 to 2008 differences

  14. Arizona and California

  15. Florida and New Mexico

  16. Implications? • Was there or now is there a Latino vote? • Did Latinos effect the outcome? • Going forward, any implications? • Does Barack Obama “owe” the Latino community? • Turning to the election more generally…

  17. Post-Election Analysis • Why did Obama win? • How will he govern? • Democratic control is now solid. • But we do not have a cloture-proof Senate • Democrats will find it hard to hide! • Implications of Campaign for Subsequent Governance?

More Related