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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 28 th , 2014

Back to the Future Part II. On Behalf of The Maryland Economic Development Association. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 28 th , 2014. Raging Bull (1980). Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015*. Source: International Monetary Fund.

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By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 28 th , 2014

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  1. Back to the Future Part II On Behalf of The Maryland Economic Development Association By: AnirbanBasu Sage Policy Group, Inc. April 28th, 2014

  2. Raging Bull (1980)

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015* Source: International Monetary Fund *2014-2015 data are projections

  4. Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing CountriesEstimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations) Source: International Monetary Fund

  5. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2013 Source: International Monetary Fund *For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6percent for 2013.

  6. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2014 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund *For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices. Corresponding growth forecasts for GDP at factor cost are 4.6percent for 2013.

  7. Debt by Selected Country2013 Estimates Source: International Monetary Fund *IMF Staff Estimates

  8. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2013 Growth* Source: Yahoo! Finance *Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.

  9. S&P Select Sector Performance12-Month Percent Change as of April 17, 2014 Source: Standard & Poor’s

  10. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 IndexMay 2008 – April 2014 S&P 500 index depicted in orange Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance

  11. Top Gun (1986)Profits out of the Danger Zone Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance

  12. Recession Watchas of January 2014 Source: Moody’s Economy

  13. U.S. Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals6-Month Moving AverageJanuary 2004 through January 2014 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  14. U.S. Oil Production6-Month Moving AverageJanuary 2004 through January 2013 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  15. Industrial ProductionJanuary 2001 through March 2014 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  16. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2013Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  17. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2012 – Q4 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  18. Ordinary People (1980)

  19. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through March 2014 March 2014: +192K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMarch 2013 v. March 2014 All told 2,246K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v. Part-timeDecember2007 – March 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: -3.61 million Part-time: +2.95 million

  22. Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)March 2013 v. March 2014Absolute Change MD Total: +14.0K; +0.5% US Total (SA): +2,246K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD gained 5,150 jobs between March 2013 and March 2014.

  23. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) March 2013 v. March 2014 Percent Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%

  24. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)March 2013 v. March 2014Absolute Change Baltimore MSA Total: +13.0K; +1.0% MD Total (SA): 14.0K; +0.5% US Total (SA): +2,246K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  25. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)March 2013 v. March 2014Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +5.5K; +0.2% US Total (SA): +2,246K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  26. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) March 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 6.7%

  27. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)February 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  28. MD County Unemployment RatesFebruary 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  29. Math and Reading Test Performance and Poverty, Select MD Counties2013 (test scores) Source: 2009-11 American Community Survey 3 year estimates, Maryland Report Card

  30. Educational Attainment by MD County:Percent of Population with BA Degree or Higher2009-2011 Source: 2009-11 American Community Survey 3 year estimates

  31. Poverty Rates by Maryland County2006-2010 Source: indexmundi.com Maryland: 8.6%

  32. Field of Dreams (1989)

  33. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through April 2014 Source: Freddie Mac

  34. U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through March 2014 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

  35. U.S. Housing StartsJanuary 1999 through March 2014 Source: Census Bureau

  36. U.S. Housing Building PermitsJanuary 1999 through March 2014 March 2014: 1 Unit: 592K 5 Units or more: 370K Source: Census Bureau

  37. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros January 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard & Poor’s

  38. Housing Inventory by Suburban MD+ March 2013 v. March 2014 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = March, 2013: 4.8 months; March, 2014: 5.6 months.

  39. Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction+ March 2013 v. March 2014 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = March, 2013: 4.8 months; March, 2014: 5.6 months.

  40. Housing Inventory in the Other MarylandMarch 2013 v. March 2014 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = March, 2013: 4.8 months; March, 2014: 5.6 months.

  41. The Shining (1980)

  42. Sales Growth by Type of Business March 2013 v. March 2014* Source: Census Bureau *March 2014 advanced estimate

  43. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through March 2014 Source: Conference Board

  44. Coming to America (1988) • The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP; • Healthcare reform could slow full-time hiring over the course of the year; and • Further evidence of Maryland’s economic and demographic under-performance, particularly in the second Maryland. • Economy gained momentum over the course of last year; • Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like housing and autos; • The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding federal budgeting and monetary policy – that helps;

  45. Thank You • Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup • You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com • Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com. • Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) • Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

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