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Drought monitoring for the Middle East North Africa

Gilgamesh (c. 2600 BCE). ?The Bull of Heaven devoured the pasture, and drank the water of the river in great slurps. With each slurp it used up one mile of the river, but its thirst was not satisfied. It stripped the land bare. It broke up the palm trees, as it bent them to fit them into its mouth .

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Drought monitoring for the Middle East North Africa

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    1. Drought monitoring for the Middle East & North Africa Ben Zaitchik – Johns Hopkins University John Bolten, Matt Rodell, Dave Toll, Ted Engman, Shahid Habib – NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Mutlu Ozdogan –University of Wisconsin Martha Anderson – USDA-ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Lab

    2. Gilgamesh (c. 2600 BCE) “The Bull of Heaven devoured the pasture, and drank the water of the river in great slurps. With each slurp it used up one mile of the river, but its thirst was not satisfied. It stripped the land bare. It broke up the palm trees, as it bent them to fit them into its mouth . . . . The Bull bellowed in the dust.” I should start off by admitting that I’m not the first person to try to solve the problem of drought in the Middle East Gilgamesh rejects the sexual advances of Ishtar, who is the daughter of the sky god Anu. In response, Anu sends down the Bull of Heaven. Gilgamesh’s response: slaughter the Bull, offer its heart to the sun god an heave its hindquarters back at the god who’d sent it.I should start off by admitting that I’m not the first person to try to solve the problem of drought in the Middle East Gilgamesh rejects the sexual advances of Ishtar, who is the daughter of the sky god Anu. In response, Anu sends down the Bull of Heaven. Gilgamesh’s response: slaughter the Bull, offer its heart to the sun god an heave its hindquarters back at the god who’d sent it.

    3. Joseph (c. 1800 BCE) “And Joseph said unto Pharaoh: ‘Seven years of plenty will come to the land of Egypt, and after that seven years of famine. And now let Pharaoh appoint overseers to store up food in every city throughout the years of plenty, and there will be food for the seven years of famine, and the land will not perish through the famine.’ ”

    4. Precipitation

    5. Precipitation

    6. Precipitation

    7. Agriculture Figure 2: Vegetation intensity in the Middle East. (A) Map of mean annual NDVI maximum, based on monthly averaged AVHRR data, 1981-2001. Color hue indicates the month of peak NDVI and color saturation indicates the magnitude of the NDVI peak. (B,C) Phenology of representative pixels for major land cover types, based on SPOT 10-day NDVI composites for 2003. Figure 2: Vegetation intensity in the Middle East. (A) Map of mean annual NDVI maximum, based on monthly averaged AVHRR data, 1981-2001. Color hue indicates the month of peak NDVI and color saturation indicates the magnitude of the NDVI peak. (B,C) Phenology of representative pixels for major land cover types, based on SPOT 10-day NDVI composites for 2003.

    8. Water Resources The scarcity of freshwater is an increasingly acute problem 14 of 20 nations are in water deficit today Rapid population growth The region is particularly vulnerable to climate change IPCC model consensus indicates reduced precipitation for much of the region Increased variability is a significant challenge for rainfed agriculture and livestock Real and perceived competition for water between countries engenders political tension More than 60% of MENA’s water supply flows across international borders

    9. Water Resources

    10. Drought Monitoring Identified needs: Characterize areas vulnerable to drought Enhance drought forecasting capacity Improve desertification monitoring Institute alert systems for damage mitigation Document historic trends Improve data collection, management, and sharing

    11. Technical Approach

    12. Philosophical Approach Engage in collaborative problem identification and system implementation Produce regionally customized and evaluated NASA research results amenable to national-level applications and operations Transfer methodologies (where appropriate) to regional partners Encourage a policy of data sharing through open dissemination of results

    13. MENA LDAS (Matt Rodell, John Bolten, et al.) NASA has partnered with USAID (OMEP) to develop a Land Data Assimilation System for the MENA, which will provide regional water balance assessments to address: water availability patterns of variability aquifer monitoring evapotranspiration mapping

    14. MENA-LDAS hub at ICBA campus Dubai will provide regional data that will be an important input to decision-makers Partnership: ICBA John D. Bolten NASA GSFC

    15. NASA’s Project Nile

    16. NASA’s Project Nile

    17. Water Information System Platforms (WISPs)

    18. Thank you

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