How is Climate Change impacting British Columbia ’ s Managed Forests?

1. How is Climate Changeimpacting British Columbia’sManaged Forests? Considerations for stakeholders in the Okanagan that are adapting forest management to climate change Kristine Weese Resource Practices Branch Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations

2. Overview Context: climate change adaptation in BC FLNR science and policy efforts to date Projected impacts to forest ecosystems Management issues & best practices Barriers to adaptation Key messages for Okanagan stakeholders

3. Climate Change in BC

4. Climate Change Adaptation in BC ADM, Resource Stewardship Chief Forester MFLNRO Ministries – MFLRNO (lead), Min of Environment Key initiatives – • Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative (2006-12) • Forest Stewardship Action Plan for CC Adaptation (2012→) Policy lever– primarily Forest and Range Practices Act Climate Change Adaptation Steering Committee Competitiveness & Innovation Research COP Resource Practices Branch Tree Improvement Branch Forest Analysis & Inventory Branch Wildfire Mgmt Program Range Branch Ministry of Environment

5. Research Initiatives • High resolution spatial climate data • Modelling climate effects on trees, grasslands, disturbance, hydrology, biodiversity & wildlife • Risk assessment & decision-support tools • Regional vulnerability assessments • Climate change monitoring strategy

6. FFESC PROJECTS DISTRIB 1, 13 & 14 province-wide 4 2 5? 11 15 4 3&10 12 6 07 07 8 16 (& 5) 9

7. Policy Initiatives

8. Climate change in BC • Climate change is underway • Predicted to accelerate over this century: • Estimates: 1.8 to 4.0° temp increase • Annual precipitation increase 6% • Decrease in snowpack • More extreme weather coming: • Heat waves, heavy precipitation events • Southern BC: more drought • Coast & mountains: more rain storms, wind

9. Thompson-Okanagan *By 2050s

10. Impacts: Hydrology *Where snowmelt not stored in ground water

11. Impacts: Disturbance

12. Impacts: Forests, soils, wildlife • Climate envelopes of tree species are shifting upslope and north: • Shrinking: higher-elevation BEC zones • Expanding: grasslands, dry forest ecosystems, ICH • Ecosystem shifts to warmer, drier extremes: • Reduced soil moisture, drought-induced mortality • Extreme weather and disturbance = loss of habitat and increased mortality for wildlife

13. Adaptation Strategies • Reduce risks to forest ecosystems: • Limit cumulative effects • Promote resilience (diversity) • Assist migration (connectivity; climate-suitable tree species) • Combat detrimental change (manage disturbance) • Reduce risks to communities: • Monitor and detect undesirable changes • Help build community adaptive capacity • Help build infrastructure capacity

14. Best Practices

15. More Best Practices

16. Key Message from Scientists “With the exception of assisted migration, adaptation strategies are elements of ecosystem-based management that require broader application”

17. Barriers to Adaptation

18. Key Messages • Consider new and emerging science & policy • Utilize best (ecosystem-based) practices • Experiment, monitor, adapt: operational trials • Share ideas/learning thru ‘COPs’ • Advocate government action: • Risk-sharing / enabling innovation / incentives • Land use planning / monitoring • Supporting community adaptation

19. Contacts • Kristine Weese, Resource Practices Branch, FLNR • kristine.weese@gov.bc.ca • FFESC web site: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/future_forests/council/ • FLNR Climate Change Adaptation web site: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/het/climate/actionplan/index.htm