Si ego Certiorem Faciam, Mihi Tu Delendus Eris – the Greek Goddess of Chaos! Homer

1. Experimentation of Complex, Adaptive Aerospace Mission Capabilities - An International Code of Best Practice for T&E & Experimentation – Spousal Family of Systems Parable Wing Commander Malcolm G. Tutty MEng, CPEng, FRAeS, FIE(Aust) UniSA DASI PhD Candidate / HQSRG SO1TC – Air malcolm.tutty@defence.gov.au / www.maltutty.com – Use visitor / Maven1 Si ego Certiorem Faciam, Mihi Tu Delendus Eris – the Greek Goddess of Chaos! Homer

2. The FICS & ‘FOC Effectors’ • FICS – Fundamental Inputs to Capability • Driven by OCDs & Conops • Personnel • Organisation • Collective Training • Major Systems • Supplies • Facilities & Training Areas • Command & Management • User perspectives at all levels (Sqn/Wing/Group/HQs) need to be identified and argued for ... FOC Effectors - Fundamental Outputs of Capability Results expected of the Conops ... SIPOC Critical Operational/Technical Issues… Measures Of Effectiveness Measures Of Performance IV&V Rate of Effort Preparedness – both readiness & sustainment Interoperability with other SoS? Question/Observation: How many Conops do you have/need, really? Unclassified

3. Technology / Systems Readiness Levels Unclassified

4. LUST WOMB FISCAL REALITY! CLEARANCE CERTIFICATION ADOLESCENCE MATURITY TOMB DUST Complex Capability Management Model- Lust to Dust Methodology CAPABILITY IDENTIFIED CAPABILITY DEFINITION-ACQUISITION INTRODUCTION INTO SERVICE CAPABILITY MAINTAINED CAPMGR ORD MET? Y / N P W D 10 CONOPS / OCD REQT DEFN 0 VEHICLE & SYSTEMS SPO(s) ACQN & SYST ENG (Acft-Msn Cap – EDP / Sim Survey) 2 INTRO INTO SERVICE CONOPS REQT ACHIEVED & MAINTAINED 9 EXPERIMENT’N 1 Follow-on OT&E(s) 7 Developmental T&E 3 ONGOING IN-SERVICE Tactics, Techniques & Procedures EXPERIMENTATION 8 Qualification T&E 4 Acceptance T&E 5 Initial OT&E 6 Unclassified

5. Proposed Case Studies • F-111 – AGM-142 Demo and DMO win/fail/win • P-3 MU90 Light Weight Torpedo fail • P-3 EO/IR SSHD & TCDL win/win • Classic Hornet - JDAMER fail/win • Classic JDAM/JDAMER/JSOW wins • Tiger ARH AGM-114 Hellfire wins • Joint Fires (JTAC) and Danger Close impact wins and future criticality • Develop Spousal FoS Capability Unclassified

6. Spousal Capability – a FoS parable! • The power to achieve a desired operational effect in a nominated environment, within a specified time, and to sustain that effect for a designated period. • Conops: To see, experience & change the world for the better (world peace / hunger / control (Pinky) solved) with a friend and lover until Death (Planned Withdrawal Date) with at least 2.6 children & with an online availability of daily missions … • FICS – Fundamental Inputs to Capability • - Driven by Conops, of course! • a.Personnel: sensuous & sultry wife & fun kids, wider families. • Organisation: wife & family, decentralised parents. • Collective training: marriage, schools, Uni, entertainment, Swingers Club ??. • Major Systems: Home Ent, Cars, Computer Avatar LVC Sim, Guns, power, ... • e. Supplies: Alcohol, Food Markets, Financial, contraception ... • Facilities and Training Areas: House, Bar, holiday home/caravan, shooting range. • Support: social / financial / ETSA, Gas, water. • Command and Management: Comms essential (so I’m told), others? FOCS - Fundamental Outputs of Capability The Conops in User perspective ... Scenarios: ok be realistic now SIPOC: ... RoE: key – average loving/sex / daily / weekly / monthly / yearly for some SEs? Preparedness: readiness & sustainability? COI/CTIs: could be interesting to get agreement on these… MOE: Ops suitability & Effectiveness!, World Peace or World Hunger solved, kids in Uni/TAFE, Govt stable Pop/social/economic betterment MOP: Min 2 kids Max 4... Other Perf measures IV&V – should be interesting! Interoperability with other SoS: hmm… Unclassified

7. CAPABILITY IDENTIFIED CAPABILITY DEFINITION - ACQUISITION INTRODUCTION INTO SERVICE CAPABILITY MAINTAINED The Right ‘Capabilities’ LUST WOMB FISCAL REALITIES! CLEARANCE CERTIFICATION ADOLESCENCE TOMB DUST OUTCOME Female – Male configurations that meet operational suitability, effectiveness and preparedness criteria! Girls Roadmap To see, experience & change the world for the better (world peace/hunger/control (Pinky) solved) with a friend and lover until Death (the Planned Withdrawal Date) with at least 2.6 children & with an online availability of daily missions … Boys Traditionally seen as a System/SoS -> FoS, obviously

8. Spousal Capability – a FoS parable! 2015 GOALS 2030 GOALS 2045 GOALS 2060 GOALS 2075 GOALS ? FoS - to achieve capability others are involved in the ‘mission’ – messy, complex, real ? Value of / How to experiment early with what you have – simulation & LVC, -> 2nd Life / avatars ? Note that the Conops has more dimensions… Wife 1 Wife 2 Wife 3 Girlfriend 1 Girlfriend 2 Affairs! You Boyfriend 1 Husband 2 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2100 SCOPE/R&D/ORD .1 / .2 ACQUISITION - .3 / .4 LINKS Increment / Spiral / P3I YOD A / IOT&E - .5 / .6 FOT&E / IOS - .7 IOC PWD DELIVERY IN SERVICE - .8 / .9

9. Spousal Capabilities - coming sometime soon… Dear Tech Support, I have upgraded from Boyfriend 5.0 to Husband 1.9 and I noticed a distinct slowdown in the overall system performance, particularly in the flower and jewellery applications, which operated flawlessly under Boyfriend 5.0. Husband 1.9 uninstalled many other valuable programs, such as Romance 9.5 and Personal Attention 6.5, and then installed undesirable programs such as NEWS 5.0, NOMONEY 3.0 and FOOTBAL 4.1, Conversation 8.0 no longer runs, and Housecleaning 2. 6 simply crashes the system. Please note that I have tried running Nagging 5.3 to fix these problems, but to no avail. What can I do? SETE 2011 Tutty Unclassified 9

10. IT Support’s Response DEAR Madam, First, keep in mind, Boyfriend 5.0 is an Entertainment Package, while Husband 1.X is an operating system. Please enter command: ithoughtyoulovedme.Html and try to download Tears 6.2 and do not forget to install the Guilt 3.0 update. If that application works as designed, Husband1.X should then automatically run the applications Jewellery 2.0 and Flowers 3.5. However, overuse of the above application can cause Husband 1.0 to default to Silence 2.5 or Beer 6.1. Note that Beer 6.1 is a very bad program that will download the Snoring Loudly Beta. Whatever you do, DO NOT under any circumstances install Mother-In-Law 1.0 (it runs a virus in the background that will eventually seize control of all your system resources) and DO NOT attempt to reinstall the Boyfriend 5.0 program. These are unsupported applications and will crash Husband 1.9. In summary, Husband 1.9 is a great, mature program, but it does have limited memory and cannot learn new applications quickly. You might also consider buying additional software to improve memory and performance. We recommend: Cooking 3.0 and Good Looks 7.7. SETE 2011 Tutty Unclassified 10

11. Warning A Flight Test Armament Engineer is a person who passes as an expert on the basis of being able to turn out, with prolific fortitude, indefinite strings of incomprehensible mathematical figures, calculated with micromatic precision from vague assumptions which are based on debatable figures taken from inconclusive data, carried out through forms of problematic accuracy by persons of doubtful reliability and questionable mentality about things designed to kill or negate targets and/or non-allies, for the avowed purpose of annoying and confounding a hopelessly befuddled group of key personnel and who may never read the damned reports anyway! SETE 2011 Tutty Unclassified 11

12. CAS & Experimentation 3 Levels of Abstraction Complex Adaptive - Cross Capability Engineered Integrated Mission Environment -Seeking understanding and adaptability of FoS Emergent properties at Buyers Risk! • Complex Acquisitions of FOS • Synchronisation • Proven Config/Role/Environment (CRE) for EACH SoS in the FoS • “Rub Points” & hence all ‘Key Interfaces’ are identified • PICS Critical • Complex & adaptive - Family of Systems • Lots of unknowns and unknowables • Mission Level PICs & ‘ilities’ proven (sic) • “FOS” ‘ilities’ are rare but WITH “Mission Expectations” -> adaptability? • SOA / OSA predominate – but not common • Continuous measurement of MS MOE/MOP • V&V & Implications • QA • Structured Expirmentation/T&E of Systems for Joint End-Effects • Exp/T&E of SoS boundaries - Sellers Risk • Exp/T&E with FoS continuously - Buyers Risk Complicated - Bounded ‘Systems Engineered’ Capabilities - Pick and maintain a model with agreed standards to measure and control system, or any SoS emergent properties, at Sellers Risk • Complicated Systems of Systems • Few unknowns unknowns • Bounded ‘Things’ with controlled connectivity • Engagement ‘ilities’ & PICs specified & known but no “prescriptive” Mission Level MOE / MOP • Users need Training / TTPs developed on the new and/or unique Tools • Typical Complicated Acquisitions • Minimal coordination • Config/Role/Environment (CRE) • ‘Isolated’ with few connections • Sub-systems can be simply acquired • PICS Important • V&V & Implications • QA • Structured Exp/T&E to verify agreed ‘ilities’, Training & TTPs • SoS – essentially Sellers Risk Simple - ‘Traditional’ Engineered Systems - Mature COTS & MOTS ‘Heaven / Nirvana’ at Buyers Risk • Straightforward ‘Simple’ Standalone Systems • No Unknowns and No Unknowables! • We’re buying something ‘other’ s working system • A Collection of Managed Things (ie. 5 apples & 3 bananas) • No ilities needed • No dedicated training needed (ie known by Users) • ‘Metaphysics rules’ & all characteristics ‘thought to be known’ • Simple Acquisitions • Rare coordination • Buy each ‘thing’ OTS • CIOG & DSG space critical in Aust • What are PICS? • V&V & Implications • QA checks ’things’ from Contractor • Buyer must be aware of any/all cross dependencies with COTS/MOTS support and updates • Systems – essentially Buyers Risk Unclassified

13. JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’ Unclassified

14. JAIME CODEx ‘Tests’ Unclassified