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World Meteorological Organization (WMO) S evere W eather F orecasting and D isaster risk reduction D emonstration P

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) S evere W eather F orecasting and D isaster risk reduction D emonstration P roject ( SWFDDP ). Steve Ready. South Pacific ‘Window’. Kiribati. Solomon Islands. Tuvalu. Samoa. Vanuatu. Cook Islands. Fiji. Niue. Tonga. 150 O E to 150 O W,

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World Meteorological Organization (WMO) S evere W eather F orecasting and D isaster risk reduction D emonstration P

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  1. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) Steve Ready

  2. South Pacific ‘Window’ Kiribati Solomon Islands Tuvalu Samoa Vanuatu Cook Islands Fiji Niue Tonga 150OE to 150OW, 2ON to 25(30)OS Back

  3. Background to Project Initiated by WMO Commission for Basic Systems in 2005 to tap into global network of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) products Project is really a series of subprojects 1st subproject for south-eastern Africa started in Nov 2006 2nd subproject for South Pacific area started up as a Pilot on 1 Nov 2009

  4. Pilot & Demonstration phases Pilot phase: 1Nov 2009 to 31 Oct 2010 completed Only Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Samoa involved. Full Demonstration phase: Nov 2010 to 31 Oct 2012 (at least!) Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands joined the others. Progress Reports: every 4 months. The next round of Country reports for period 1 July to 31 October 2011 due by 16-November.

  5. SWFDDP Goals Goal 1: improve the ability of NMHSs to forecast severe weather and wave events Goal 2: improve the lead time for forecasting these events Goal 3: improve the interaction between NMHSs and Disaster Management Centre Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPAs) Goal 4: NMHSs to identify gaps and areas for improvement Goal 5: improve the skill of products from Global Centres and RSMCs through feedback

  6. Scope of SWFDDP Test the usefulness of NWP products – both operational and experimental Severe weather associated with tropical cyclones Severe weather associated with non-tropical cyclone weather systems Guidance related to heavy precipitation, strong winds & large waves Implement a CASCADING FORECASTING PROCESS

  7. Cascading Forecasting Process GLOBAL CENTRES (UK, EC, NCEP (USA), JMA) RSMCs (Wellington, Darwin, Nadi) & regional support = New Caledonia & French Polynesia MetConnect Pacific NMHSs (Solomon Is, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands) Emergency management authorities, media & public

  8. Responsibilities RSMCs (Wellington, Darwin, Nadi) NMHSs (Solomon Is, Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tonga, Niue & Cook Islands) GLOBAL CENTRES (EC, UK, USA &MeteoFrance) • Give initial interpretation NWP guidance for NMHSs • Provide additional NWP guidance (if available) • Liaise closely with NMHSs • Host Project website = MetConnect Pacific • Issue severe weather forecasts & warnings to the public • Liaise with emergency management authorities & media • Provide feedback to RSMCs & Global centres Provide NWP charts • Deterministic products • Ensemble products: UK (24 members), ECMWF (51 members)

  9. SPG charts as viewed on SWFDDP Project website, MetConnect Pacific

  10. South Pacific Guidance (SPG) charts (1) SPG charts represent the RSMC Wellington forecaster’s interpretation of the various NWP/Ensemble guidance for NMHSs to help in the production of their severe weather & wave forecasts & warnings They contain Heavy rain/Strong wind/Large wave/TC information according to agreed criteria TC information refers users to the latest TC Outlook or advisory/warning bulletin issued by RSMC Nadi, Brisbane TCWC, Port Moresby TCWC or Wellington TCWC Before a TC is named, RSMC Wellington provides additional rain/wind/wave information in the TC Outlook zone.

  11. SPG charts (2) Updated around 0300 and 1500 UTC daily SPG charts viewed on the landing page of the project website, MetConnect Pacific

  12. Criteria for South Pacific Guidance charts HEAVY RAIN STRONG WIND LARGE WAVES TROPICAL CYCLONES (non-TC) (non-TC)(non-TC) ≥ 100mm in 24 hours ≥30knots ≥ 2.5m north of 15⁰South now or later ≥ 3.5m at & south of 15⁰South Confidence factors Low (1 in 5 chance) or moderate (2 in 5 chance) or high (3 in 5 chance)

  13. Training initiatives • In-country visits (round 1):1st round completed except for Niue • In-country visits (round 2):To be carried out in 2012 before the 2012/2013 cyclone season

  14. Achievements (1) One year Pilot Phase (involving just 4 Pacific Island Coutries) completed on 31-October-2010 Demonstration Phase (involving 9 Pacific Island countries) in fuIl swing Progress reports completed by each country every 4 months, plus an overall report compiled for wider dissemination One round of in-country training completed and a 2nd round pending in 2012 Interactions between RSMC Wellington and various countries especially for wave events has been very useful Cascading Process – bottom part needs most work

  15. Achievements (2) SWFDDP project management meetings held in April 2009 and at the end of the Pilot Phase, 1-4 November 2010.

  16. Challenges (1) NMHSs (responsible for issuing own forecasts & warnings) taking a more objective approach to forecasting e.g. quantifying amount of rain Verification of severe weather forecasts & warnings – requires NMHSs to take a more objective approach NMHSs (reliant on RSMC Nadifor forecasts & warnings) using the project to help them providing input into forecasts & warnings for their country Cascading Process – bottom part needs NMHSs to be more proactive with agencies they service

  17. Challenges (2) Overcoming very poor NOWCASTING tools in Pacific Island countries to counteract absence of radar SWFFDP acting as a test WMO GIFS-TIGGE multi-model ensemble products Sustainability of SWFDDP – future funding for training & periodic development work on the project website, MetConnect Pacific

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