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PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN PRASARANA TELEMATIKA

PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN PRASARANA TELEMATIKA. Oleh : Eddy Satriya. Disampaikan pada One Day Total e-Solutions Seminar The Grand Bali Beach Hotel – Sanur 29 Mei 2002. Analisis Pembangunan Prasarana Telekomunikasi. 1983/84. 1988/89. 1993/94. 1998/99. 2003/04. Pelita III. Pelita IV.

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PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN PRASARANA TELEMATIKA

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  1. PERENCANAAN PEMBANGUNAN PRASARANA TELEMATIKA Oleh : Eddy Satriya Disampaikan pada One Day Total e-Solutions Seminar The Grand Bali Beach Hotel – Sanur 29 Mei 2002

  2. Analisis Pembangunan Prasarana Telekomunikasi 1983/84 1988/89 1993/94 1998/99 2003/04 Pelita III Pelita IV Pelita V Pelita VI-Krisis Propenas-Krisis 600.000 ss 900.000 ss 3.000.000 ss 8.000.000 ss ? DP, DIP, PMA, BLN DP, BLN, DIP, PMP DP, BLN, PBH DP, BLN, PBH, KSO DP, BLN, PBH, KSO? 40k ss / Th 80k ss / Th 400k ss / Th 1000k ss/T h ? CATATAN: DP: Dana Perusahaan; PBH: Pola bagi Hasil; PMP: Penyertaan Modal Pemerintah; DIP: Daftar Isian Proyek; BLN: Bantuan Luar Negeri (Hutang+Hibah), Penanaman Modal Asing

  3. Telephone Density vs Income • Korelasi antara income suatu negara dengan kepadatan telepon • ln density = a + b ln gnp + e • ln gnp = p + q ln density + e • Granger Causality Jipp, A., “Wealth of Nations and Telephone Density”, Telecommunication Journal (July 1963), pp 199-201

  4. DATA YANG DIGUNAKAN • Table 1.1 Size of Economy (GNI/GDP per capita) • Table 5.9 Power and Communications (main lines, average revenue per lines ~ ARPU) • Semua data merupakan laporan Bank Dunia ( 2001) dalam “World Development Indicators” dan dapat diakses di http://www.worldbank.org

  5. HASIL REGRESI KEPADATAN TELEPON TERHADAP INCOME

  6. HASIL REGRESI INCOME TERHADAP KEPADATAN TELEPON

  7. Target Pembangunan

  8. Highlights • Hasil Regresi : kepadatan vs income • Ln density = -5.5421 + 0.9918 ln gnp per capita (internasional) • Ln density = -4.1579 + 0.8324 ln gnp per capita (aspac) • Hasil Regresi : income vs kepadatan • Ln gnp per capita = 5.9395 + 0.8176 ln density (internasional) • Ln gnp per capita = 5.5345 + 0.9218 ln density (aspac) • Jumlah satuan sambungan yang harus dibangun sampai 2005 untuk mencapai international average • Dengan referensi internsional : 4.1 juta sst • Dengan referensi asia pasific : 7.5 juta sst

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