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Leonid A. Gavrilov , Ph.D. Natalia S. Gavrilova , Ph.D. Center on Aging

Early-Life Predictors of Exceptional Longevity in the United States: Why Centenarians are Different From Their Shorter-Lived Siblings. Leonid A. Gavrilov , Ph.D. Natalia S. Gavrilova , Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, USA.

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Leonid A. Gavrilov , Ph.D. Natalia S. Gavrilova , Ph.D. Center on Aging

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  1. Early-Life Predictors of Exceptional Longevity in the United States:Why Centenarians are Different From Their Shorter-Lived Siblings Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, USA

  2. Some results from our previous studies of exceptional longevity

  3. Parental longevity is an important predictor of the offspring longevity

  4. Daughter's Lifespan(Mean Deviation from the Birth Cohort Life Expectancy)as a Function of Paternal Lifespan • Offspring data for adult lifespan (30+ years) are smoothed by 5-year running average. • Extinct birth cohorts (born in 1800-1880) • European aristocratic families. 6,443 cases Source: Gavrilova, Gavrilov, JAAM, 2001

  5. Study of the U.S. centenarians based on computerized family histories linked to early U.S. censuses

  6. Household Property Status During Childhood and Survival to Age 100Odds for household to be in a ‘centenarian’ group A – Rented House B – Owned House C – Rented Farm D – Owned farm (reference group)

  7. Childhood Residence and Survival to Age 100Odds for household to be in a ‘centenarian’ group A – New England and Middle Atlantic (reference group) B – Mountain West and Pacific West C – Southeast and Southwest D – North Central

  8. Study of the U.S. male centenarians linked to the WWI draft registration cards:Socio-demographic and physical characteristics at age 30 and survival to age 100

  9. Body Build and Survival to 100

  10. Results of multivariate study

  11. Having children by age 30 and survival to age 100

  12. Study based on individual records from the Social Security Death Index

  13. Life Expectancy and Month of Birth Data source: Social Security Death Master File Published in: Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A. Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity. In: “Living to 100 and Beyond” Monograph. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois, USA, 2005, pp. 1-49.

  14. The role of early-life conditions in shaping late-life mortality is now well recognized

  15. New Vision of Aging-Related Diseases

  16. How centenarians are different from their shorter-lived sibling?

  17. Within-Family Approach Allows researchers to eliminate between-family variation including the differences in genetic background and childhood living conditions

  18. Computerized genealogies is a promising source of information about potential predictors of exceptional longevity: life-course events, early-life conditions and family history of longevity

  19. Internet Resources Used for Centenarian Data Collection and Verification Computerized genealogies available at the Rootsweb website Social Security Administration Death Master File is publicly available at the Rootsweb website Individual indexes of enumerated persons by 1900, 1910, 1920 and 1930 federal censuses and census page images are provided by Ancestry.com

  20. Steps of the study 23,127 records of centenarians born in 1880-1895 with known information about parents were identified using the Rootsweb genealogical website 2,834 centenarians having detailed information on their 21,893 siblings were selected 1,711 centenarians had their death dates verified using the Social Security Death Index Finally 1,081 centenarians born in a more narrow window of 1880-1889 were used for further analyses

  21. Within-Family Study of Exceptional Longevity Cases - 1,081 centenarians born in the U.S. in 1880-1889 with known information about parental lifespan Controls – 6,413 their own shorter-lived siblings (5,778 survived to age 50) Method: Conditional logistic regression Advantage: Allows researchers to eliminate confounding effects of between-family variation

  22. Design of the Study

  23. Multivariate Analysis:Conditional logistic regression • For 1:n matched study, the likelihood for N matched sets is given by: Where ui is the covariate vector for the case and vi1, vi2 , …, vin(i) are covariate vectors for the ni controls, respectively, of the ith matched set.

  24. Maternal age and odds to live to 100 for siblings survived to age 50

  25. Does maternal age effect depend on the gender of siblings? Data were split by the gender of siblings (‘daughters only’ and ‘sons only’ analyses)

  26. Maternal age and odds to live to 100, by gender. Odds ratios (p-value)

  27. Question Families were quite large in the past, particularly those covered by genealogical records (large family size bias). Is the "young mother effect" robust to the family size, and is it observed in smaller families too? Or is it confined to extremely large families only? Approach: To split data in two equal parts by median family size (9 children) and re-analyze the data in each group separately.

  28. Results In smaller families (less than 9 children) the effect of young mother is even larger (for siblings survived to age 50 and maternal age 20-24 years vs 40+ years): Odds ratio = 2.23, P=0.013; 95%CI = 1.18 – 4.21 Compare to larger families (more than 9 children): Odds ratio = 1.39, P=0.188; 95%CI = 0.85 – 2.27 Conclusion: "Young mother effect" is not confined to extremely large family size

  29. People Born to Young Mothers Have Twice Higher Chances to Live to 100Within-family study of 2,153 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50. Family size <9 children. p=0.020 p=0.013 p=0.043

  30. Being born to Young Mother Helps Laboratory Mice to Live Longer • Source: Tarin et al., Delayed Motherhood Decreases Life Expectancy of Mouse Offspring. Biology of Reproduction 2005 72: 1336-1343.

  31. Possible explanation These findings are consistent with the 'best eggs are used first' hypothesis suggesting that earlier formed oocytes are of better quality, and go to fertilization cycles earlier in maternal life.

  32. Siblings Born in November Have Twice Higher Chances to Live to 100Within-family study of 5,698 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50

  33. Acknowledgments This study was made possible thanks to: generous support from the National Institute on Aging grant #R01AG028620

  34. For More Information and Updates Please Visit Our Scientific and Educational Website on Human Longevity: And Please Post Your Comments at our Scientific Discussion Blog: • http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/ http://longevity-science.org

  35. Final Conclusion The shortest conclusion was suggested in the title of the New York Times article about this study

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