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Forecasting the Weather September 24, 2012 Tom Robinson HIG 312

Forecasting the Weather September 24, 2012 Tom Robinson HIG 312. Weather Forecasting. Things you (may) know Basic quasi-geostrophic theory used to forecast the weather Web sites to look at Not my final forecast. Movin' on up. Moving water up creates clouds.

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Forecasting the Weather September 24, 2012 Tom Robinson HIG 312

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  1. Forecasting the Weather September 24, 2012 Tom Robinson HIG 312

  2. Weather Forecasting • Things you (may) know • Basic quasi-geostrophic theory used to forecast the weather • Web sites to look at • Not my final forecast

  3. Movin' on up Moving water up creates clouds

  4. QG for Dummies • Quasi-geostrophic theory involves assuming the wind is in geostrophic balance (as it is at upper levels) but also includes divergence so upward motion is allowed • Vertical motion is caused by three different processes which can work together or against eachother • Vorticity Advenction • Temperature Advection • Diabatic Heating

  5. Vorticity is Curvature of the Wind • Vertical differential of vorticity advection • Assume it's low at the SFC compared to 500mb

  6. Temperature Advection • Winds blowing warm or cold air into the area has an effect on the upward motion

  7. Diabatic Heating • A heating source that changes the entropy and potential temperature of a system • Any kind of source that makes it hot

  8. Now You Know What To Look For • Vorticity advection (500mb voticity) • Temperature advection (SLP, 850mb) • Diabatic Heating (750mb RH, 500mb RH) • Let's forecast the weather! http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Students/ter/wx.html

  9. What The Heck Are We Doing? • Monday through Thursday, you have to submit a 1-day forecast for the city we are forecasting • High temperature (F) • Low Temperature (F) • Maximum Sustained Wind (kts) • Precipitation (hundredth of an in) • Forecast period begins at 6Z and end at 6Z • Hawaii is always -10 so 6Z is 8pm • Forecasts are due at 0Z each day • In Hawaii, 0Z is 2PM

  10. Do's and Don'ts • Submit forecasts here: http://wxchallenge.com/challenge/submit_forecast.php • Only forecast precipitation if you really think it will rain (convective precip ie. Thunderstorms are particularly difficult) • The models are NEVER correct • Watch for a 6Z high or low • Make a forecast BEFORE looking at MOS or the USL

  11. http://weather.uwyo.edu/ http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/ http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller http://www.microclimates.org/forecast/wxchallenge.html Websites To Look At

  12. THIS IS NOT MY FINAL FORECAST • High 85 • Low 63 • Winds 9 • Precip 0 • NOTE: These are the USL numbers ter@hawaii.edu

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