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Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future

Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future. Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation. OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education. Trends analysis Demography Technology Globalisation Academic research Labour market

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Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future

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  1. Demographic challenges: some perspectives for the future Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

  2. OECD/CERI Project on the Future of Higher Education • Trends analysis • Demography • Technology • Globalisation • Academic research • Labour market • Futures scenarios

  3. Outline • Why does demography matter? • What can we expect in terms of quantitative changes? • What are the qualitative challenges? • What will it take to address them?

  4. Why does demography matter?

  5. Quantitative changes and tertiary enrolments

  6. Evolution of the 18-24 population by 2025 (2005=100) Source: United Nations, Population division (revision 2006)

  7. Scenario 1: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under current conditions (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

  8. Scenario 2: Projected tertiary enrolments in 2025 under recent trends (2005=100) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

  9. Total expenditures for tertiary education institutions as % of GDP in 2005, and projected difference by 2025 under scenario 2 (GDP points) GDP set at 2% growth and educational costs per head projected linearly according to 1995-2005 growth rate (constant prices) Source: OECD, Higher Education 2030, Vol. 1 Demography

  10. Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-64 population

  11. Tertiary educational attainment (%) of 25-44 population

  12. Qualitative changes in tertiary enrolments

  13. Population estimates for the make-up of 18-25 year olds in the United States Source: US Censur Bureau

  14. Social inequity over time (father’s education) Source: Social Situation Observatory (except Japan, Korea, and Australia)

  15. Growth in the number of foreign students (2000-2006, 2000=100)

  16. Share of tertiary degrees awarded to women

  17. Gender gap in tertiary educational attainment (F-M) by age group No gap in 2005; +18% for youngest cohort if strict projection; >10% ?

  18. Addressing the quality access challenges

  19. On your memory stick Higher Education 2030 • Volume 1: Demography Forthcoming: • Volume 2: Technology • Volume 3: Globalisation • Volume 4: Scenarios

  20. Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin@oecd.org Thank You www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures

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