Can we imagine a World without Ice? Climate change: Impacts on glaciers

1. Can we imagine a World without Ice? Climate change: Impacts on glaciers Helgi Björnsson Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland

2. What is at stake? Glaciers in the hydrological cycle 0,001% 0,01% 2,15% 0,63% 97,2%

3. Global sea level rise 0.2 – 0.5 m ? Depending on climate scenarios IPCC 2007

4. Contributions to rising sea level 1993-2003 1961-2003 3.1+/- 0.7 mm year-1 Varmaútþensla Antarctica Sea level equivalent: 61.1 m ? Greenland SLE: 7.2 m ? Glaciers outside polar regions SLE 0.5 m Jöklar utan heimskauta Thermal expansion IPCC AR4

5. Glaciers in polar regions Sea level equivalent: SLE 69 m Arctic islands of N-Europe (Spitsbergen, Novaya Zemlya) Greenland SLE: 7.2 m Canadian Arctic islands Antarctica SLE: 61.1 m

6. Melting of the ice cover on the Arctic OceanThe most visible expression of global warming Of global importance for ship-transport of goods and cargo Arctic glaciological research require international collaboration 2005 1979

7. Muli-national collaboration of Arctic research

8. Impact of climate change in the Arctic • Substantial decrease in Arctic Sea Ice, thinning and reduced area • Amplified by reduced albedo • Thawing of permafrost,release of methane • Extinction of many organisms that are adapted to this habitat, endemic species. • What are the walrus going to eat if they have to come ashore in the summer? • Models predict: • 5 cm sea-level rise from melting in Greenland during the 21st century. Greenland may almost completely melt during the next 1,000 years (starting melting rapidly by 2100).

9. Mid-latitude glaciers Sea level equivalent: SLE 0.5 m Norway Iceland Alps Alaska Pyrenees Pacific Coastal Range The Third Pole Rocky Mountains Patagonia New Zealand

10. Glacier changes in The Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya region have economical and social impact on more than 1000 million people Third-pole glaciological research require international collaboration Indus Ganges Brahhmaputra Yellow river Salween Mekong Yangtze

11. Tropical glaciers Kilimanjaro Mount Kenya New Guinea, Indonesia Ecuator Bolivia Northern Andes

12. Impacts of glacier retreat on: • Hydrology • Seasonal runoff changes. Excessive Flooding. Water arrives earlier than needed • Glacial lakes outburst floods (e. g. Nepal, Bhutan) • Sediment transport • Replenishment of reservoirs for drinking supplies, domestic use, • Irrigation, droughts (e. g. Mongolia, western China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Tajikistan, South America). • Societal matters, regional planning, geoengineering • Development, adaptation • Engineering and transportation, design of roads, bridges, hydropower plants, • Tourism, ski resorts, mountain recreation. • Food production, Reduced Agricultural Output • Public health • Political conflicts • Ecosystems • Animal, Bird, and Fish Habitat Loss. – Plants. • Oceans • Sea level rise, effect on coastal regions worldwide. • Alterations to the ocean currents, thermohaline circulation. • Longer term albedo changes, climate feedback.

13. The Ocean’s Conveyor Belt Warm Cold

14. Iceland is located at the border of warm and cold ocean and atmospheric currents Heavy precipitation Mild tempeartures

15. Global sea level rise 0,8 – 1 m ? New predictions Potential dynamic instability of landbased glaciers is not considered in the present IPCC report May contribute < 2 m before 2100.