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Efficient Decision Support for Ski Resort Planning

Explore how Decision Support Systems (DSS) aid in optimizing ski resort planning by balancing capacities and market demands, facilitating better decision-making. Learn about DSS components, examples, and benefits in tackling unstructured problems.

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Efficient Decision Support for Ski Resort Planning

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  1. Decision Support Systems (DSS) Dr. Merle P. Martin MIS Department CSU Sacramento

  2. Agenda • Ski Resort Planning • What is a DSS? • Unstructured Problems • DSS Components • DSS Examples • Group DSS

  3. Ski Area Planning • Ski area designs require • same input • same decision model • Each resort offers : • different types of trails • to different skill levels • Long-range objective: maximize profits for given terrain & market mix

  4. Ski Area Planning • Optimum design concentrates on balancing downhill / uphill capacities • System of trails cannot easily be changed once carved • Summer activities complicate design • Industry is capital intensive

  5. Ski Resort PlanningPrimary Objective Downhill Capacity (Trails) Uphill Capacity (Lifts) = Production Capacity Market Demand

  6. Ski Area Planning Terrain Capacity Analysis: • Examine physical attributes of mountain • Create initial set of trails • Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e., trail system)

  7. Ski Area Planning Terrain Capacity Analysis: • Examine physical attributes of the mountain • Create initial set of trails • Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e., trail system) Market Analysis: • Match trail system to market mix

  8. Topography Map (Terrain) Expert and advanced trails Steep slope Gentle slope Novice & beginner trail Lifts

  9. Physical Design • Physical terrain and constraints • Slope of mountain sides • Physical obstacles (e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.) • Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery) • Designer selects initial layout • Initial set of trails

  10. Physical Design • Downhill capacity of skiers calculated • Number of skiers per acre (judgmental) • Type of skier (i.e., skill level) • Regional density

  11. Market Analysis • Objective: match trail system to market demands • Seven skier skill levels: • Beginner • Novice • Low intermediate • Intermediate • High intermediate • Advance • Expert Market Mix: Percentage from each category

  12. Decision Support System • Calculates trail capacity • Matches skill levels to trail via slope grades • Takes into account skier density per acre by skill level • Calculates market mix of skier skill levels • Provides expected numbers from a given market mix distribution

  13. Decision Support System • Balances trail system to market mix • Changes input parameters: • Trail attributes • Density levels • Market mix distribution • Examines uphill capacity

  14. Terrain Capacity AnalysisSlope Inventory

  15. Market Display:Design for 3837 Skiers Market percent estimated by the planner Computed by the DSS

  16. Skill Balance

  17. What is a DSS? Sprague / Carlson: “Computer-based system that helps the decision maker confront ill-structured problems through direct interaction with data and analysis models.”

  18. DSS Philosophy • Aid decision maker • not replace (ES) • Decision maker remains in control • Not always best decision • Change / flexibility • Quick response

  19. DSS Characteristics • Large amounts of data • Different data sources • Tailored to decision maker: • judgment • knowledge • intuition • style • personal traits

  20. DSS Characteristics • Graphically oriented • Optimize / heuristics • “What if”(sensitivity) analysis • Goal-seeking analysis • Unstructured problems

  21. Major Components of a DSS Model Base DSS Software • Models • Financial • Statistical analysis • Graphical • Project mgmt Data Base GraphicalInterface Decision Maker

  22. Model Base • Financial • Statistical Analysis • Graphical • Project Management • Management Science • Operations research

  23. Financial Models • Cash Flow • e.g., discounted payback • Internal ROI • Portfolio Analysis • stock market • advertising • Spreadsheets

  24. Statistical Analysis • Descriptive (summary) • Trend projection • Hypothesis testing • Regression analysis

  25. Management Science • Inventory • Queuing (Line) • Network • Search

  26. DSS Examples • American Airlines • Price / rate selection • Frito-Lay • Advertising / promotion selection • Juniper Lumber • Production scheduling

  27. DSS Examples • Kmart • Price evaluation • Southern Railway • Train dispatching and forecasting • Texas Oil & Gas • Potential drilling sites

  28. Issue Does your firm use DSS? • How? • How could your firm use a DSS? • What problems do you see with DSS?

  29. Group Decision Support System (GDSS) interactive computer-based system facilitating solution of unstructured problems by a set of decision makers working together as a group.

  30. GDSS Components Database GDSS Processor Groupware Model Base Dialogue Manager User

  31. Groupware • Brainstorming tools • Idea organization • Prioritization / voting • Electronic questionnaires • pre-meeting • Group Dictionary • Stakeholder identification

  32. GDSS Layout Projection Screen Facilitator Console & Network Server Workstations Projector

  33. GDSS Benefits • Efficiency of group meetings • Quality of decisions reached • alternatives examined • participation / contribution • those who would otherwise be silent • decision outcomes • Leverage (way meetings run) • e.g., human parallel processing

  34. Factors Affecting GDSS Outcomes • Anonymity • provides sense of equality • encourages participation by all • reduces: • problems with “group think” • dominance by strong personalities • heightens conflict / impoliteness

  35. GDSS Factors • Facility Design • lighting and layout • Multiple public screens • Knowledge bases / databases • Network speed

  36. GDSS Factors • Fixed versus customized tools • Software design • ease of use • Group size / composition • individual satisfaction increases with group size • Satisfaction • participants not blocked out of group

  37. Groupware Matrix same time Face-to-Face Meetings (electronic copyboards) Teams in Place (team room tools) same place Cross-Distance Meetings (audio/video conferencing) Ongoing Coordination (voice mail, e-mail) different places different times

  38. Issue GDSS is based on the assumption that anonymity is desired. How important is anonymity in groups? • at work? • in class? • in distance-learning? WHAT DO YOU THINK?

  39. Points to Remember • What is a DSS? • DSS Components • DSS Examples • Group DSS

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