Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling

1. Joint Action Group for Operational Community Modeling Fall COPC 2008 AFWA, Omaha, NB 13 November 2008 Dr. Nelson Seaman JAG/OCM Chair

2. Overview • JAG/OCM membership (review) • Status of initiatives • 1. COPC AI 2008-1.8: Plan way forward to implement • IEMCO for limited-area NWP. • 2. COPC AI 2008-1.9: Establish and maintain coordination/ • collaboration between JAG/OCMand NUOPC. • 3. DTC update: Management, resources, activities.

3. JAG/OCM Membership • NWS – Nelson Seaman (Chair)* • FNMOC – Roger Stocker • AFWA – Evan Kuchera • NAVO – Frank Bub • NRL/MRY – Pat Phoebus (temporary) • NRL 7300 (Oceanog. Div., Stennis) – Steven Payne *Term ends Feb. 2009 - Changes in JAG membership since last COPC meeting shown in blue.

4. 1. COPC AI 2008-1.8: IEMCO Implementation - Decision Requested - Recommendation: Close this A.I. Open new A.I. for next steps.

5. IEMCO Planning: Limited-Area NWP (Detail from Spring 2008 COPC, JAG/OCM slide 17)

6. 1a. Align CONUS Windows • IEMCO plan: AFWA use NAM over N. America. • New policy: AF Dir. of Wx, June 2008: • AFWA will… • - maintain product generation based on its WRF windows • over N. America. • - continue receiving NCEP NAM fields as “second-look” • model. (begun Dec. ’07) • JAG/OCM Recommendation: Close this element of • AI 2008-1.8.

7. 1b. Align OCONUS Guam Windows: NCEP use FNMOC’s COAMPS • FNMOC realigned/expanded its WestPac window • to satisfy NCEP requirements for Guam and • Marianas Islands. (Apr ’06) • NWS has not implemented COAMPS to replace coarser • GFS fields. • - Other priorities led to delay of conversion tasks. • - NCEP re-evaluating cost effectiveness of WestPac • COAMPS: Computer resources saved vs. • added recoding and comms burden? • JAG Recommendation: Await NWS /NCEP guidance.

8. 1c. Deconflict DoD OCONUS Windows JAG/OCM strategy: • Identify significant commonalities in current DoD OCONUS • unclassified windows. • Propose near-term realignments of coarse domains • to maximize overlaps. • Recommendation next steps to COPC. Goals: - Maximize useful information for OPCs. - Minimize investment of personnel time until course of action is approved.

11. Proposed common DoD coarse mesoscale domains for mutual backup and ensemble development

12. Benefits from Overlapping Domains: - Options - • Eliminate duplications – One OPC discontinues runs. • Pro: -Saves computational resources. • Con: -Additional comms. • -Investment in conversion codes. • -Assessment of impact on products. • Provide mutual backup - Both OPCs continue runs. • Pro: -No impact on current products. • -Further investment of effort is controllable. • -Comms demand only on emergency basis. • Con: -Some duplication of computational costs. • Prepare path for future DoD ensemble. • (See next slide)

13. Experimental Ensemble Strategy • Select one shared window for ensemble development. • - Recommend WestPAC domain. • Continue running hi-res deterministic forecasts. • - Evaluate skill using common metrics. • - Exchange model datasets (1st stage “poor-man’s ensemble”). • Implement low-res. (30 km?) two-member “control” • ensemble generated by FNMOC & AFWA. • - Generate and evaluate shared ensemble forecast products. • Gradually add new ensemble members as resources allow. • - Assess computer, comms, personnel burdens. • - Provides multi-model and multi-physics options. • - Possibility for new members with perturbed ICs/BCs.

14. Proposed* Milestones and Timetable • Realign three overlapping OCONUS domains. (FY09) • - Runs continue at both FNMOC and AFWA. • - Provides zero-order mutual backup capability. • Evaluate need for advanced mutual backup capability. • - Further development TBD. (FY09) • Develop 30-km “controls” as IOC ensemble. (FY10) • Develop, test, and evaluate experimental products from • two-member IOC “control” ensemble. (FY11-FY12) • Add additional ensemble members as skill warrants and • as resources allow. (FY13-FY15) * Proposal is for discussion purposes only.

15. 2. COPC AI 2008-1.9: Establish and maintain coordination/collaboration between JAG/OCMand NUOPC - Decision Requested - Recommendation: Close the A.I.

16. Coordination of JAG/OCMand NUOPC • NUOPC manager (Fred Toepfer) and JAG/OCM chair • are consulting once per month to exchange information • and discuss opportunities. • Status: NUOPC focusing initially on global modeling, • whereas JAG is currently focused on limited-area • windows. No active coordination at present.

17. 3. DTC Update Information only

18. Status of DTC Management/Resource Plan • Management Plan: DTC Charter • - Charter approved by all parties, except for NWS, June 2008. • - NOAA legal counsel did not approve Charter, June 2008. • - Charter revisions address counsel concerns, July 2008. • - Revised version still awaiting review by NOAA counsel. • Resourcing: NOAA-NCAR Cooperative Agreement • - Signed June 2008. • New initiatives: DTC is… • - Planning support of ESMF-based community models. • (see slide 19). • - Participating in Hurricane Forecast Intensity Project (HFIP).

19. Support of ESMF-Based Models to the NWP Research Community • Establish and maintain parallel WRF and ESMF code • repositories. (FY09-FY10) • Anticipate WRF DTC support of ESMF framework and • community NWP models run operationally under ESMF. • - ESMF-NMM in FY09. • - ESMF-ARW in FY11-FY12. • Expect user support to lag ~1-2 years behind operational • updates. • Anticipate DTC support of ESMF-based global mesoscale • models to research community. (FY12 and beyond)

20. DTC Role in HFIP • DTC will… • Conduct evaluations of developmental models for future • operational hurricane predictions. • - Hi-res. limited-area models (~ 1 km) • - Current operational limited-area models (~10 km) • - Mesoscale global models (~10 km)? • Organize and run HFIP workshops.

21. Summary of Decision Requests Decision 1: AI 2008-1.8 Recommend closure of AI 2008-1.8, open new AI (see below): – No further JAG action on NCEP N. American domain. – NWS: First, decide priority and assign implementation responsibility for Guam/Marianas products based on FNMOC WestPac COAMPS. (No JAG action.) – JAG: Prepare implementation plan for delivery of WestPAC COAMPS as per NWS requirements. – JAG: Plan alignment of 3 OCONUS windows (~15-18 km) providing limited backup capability. – COPC: Decide whether to pursue enhanced backup capability. – AFWA and FNMOC: Create “joint design team” for experimental WestPac ensemble. (Issues: Resolution, member selection, computing, products, comms, FTE estimate, T&E requirements, milestones, timetable)  Relationship between JAGs and design team TBD. (CSAB?) Decision 2: AI 2008-1.9 Recommend closure.

22. Questions?

23. Backups

24. IEMCO Implementation Roadmap (spring ’08) • Complete IEMCO Planning Table (Spring 2008 JAG report to COPC, • slides 17-18. • Identify “first-guess” deliverables for each model. • Estimate dataset volumes and schedules for first-guess deliverables. • Work with JAG/CCM to define communications load requirements for • model datasets. • Draft a modeling annex to the DAPE MOA. • Draft model implementation plans for highest-priority model implementations. • - Consistent with modeling annex to DAPE MOA. • - Similar in scope & content to WRF Joint Implementation Plan. • Refine and complete modeling annex to DAPE MOA. • Refine and complete each model implementation plan.