Addressing a Public Institution’s Response to “Disruptive Technologies”

1. Addressing a Public Institution’s Response to “Disruptive Technologies” CSER 2007, March 14-16, Paper #26 M. J. De Spain MS, R. M. Griego Ph. D. Sandia National Laboratories Dinesh Verma, Ph. D. Stevens Institute of Technology Contributions from: D. McGrath MS, BWXT Pantex Disclaimer: this presentation represents the precepts and ideas of the authors, who are not speaking for any private, public or governmental institution including DOE, NNSA, Sandia National Labs or Stevens Institute of Technology.

2. The business world can help inform the domain of public enterprise. The Innovator’s Dilemma looks at why established, successful businesses fail. Lean Thinking looks at how the elimination of “waste” (muda) can keep businesses healthy to adapt in changing environments. CSER 2007, Paper #26

3. Disruptive technologies (architecture) undermines established companies. trend in high-tier of market tends to over-deliver: demand collapses Technology by high-tier of market Performance required Technology trend in low-tier of market rises to high-tier & dominates Product Performance Performance required by low-tier of market Disruptive technology (architecture) introduced Time Legend: Yellow is Market/demand White is Technical capability Red is Disruptive technology Based on Fig. I.1 of Innovator’s Dilemma CSER 2007, Paper #26

4. Effects of disruptive technologies and environments are similar, but inverted. Potential mission failure unless new architecture realized. New mission performance requirement Disruptive environment introduced Mission Performance Architecture designed for initial mission cannot meet new requirements Initial mission performance requirement Time Legend: Yellow is Mission performance needed White is Capability of architecture Red is Disruptive environment CSER 2007, Paper #26

5. The NW Complex is a public enterprise with a high consequence mission and a legacy that dates back > half a century. 1945 1950s ~1960 B61-0 B61-11 Fat Man “Wooden Bomb” Intent: Bomb requires as much attention as a log. “JIT” Final Assembly CSER 2007, Paper #26

6. Modern Safety and Use Control were developed after the wooden bomb became the standard. • Enhanced Nuclear Detonation Safety ENDS was developed in late 60s to reduce risk of nuclear detonation in an accident • Use Control UC was developed in early 60s to prevent deliberate unauthorized use (e.g. if enemy overran base and captured weapon) CSER 2007, Paper #26

7. There are many issues. • Complex and disjoint organization • Numerous policies and procedures make for unresponsive system. • NWC is expensive to operate and secure. • Potential vulnerabilities exist in various locations and over the lifecycle of the weapon. • Stockpile was designed and built for a different geopolitical environment than what exists now. • 1955: no strategic advantage in attacking a single NW • Present: advent of terrorism has elevated the potential for an attack on a single or a few US nuclear weapons CSER 2007, Paper #26

8. 9/11 highlighted a disruptive environment for the NW Complex. Potential mission failure unless a new architecture is realized. New mission performance requirement Strategic advantage to attack single weapon Mission Performance “Wooden Bomb” satisfies initial mission but struggles to counter new threats Nuclear Weapon Complex to counter Russian threat Time Legend: Yellow is Mission performance needed White is Capability of architecture Red is Disruptive environment CSER 2007, Paper #26

9. Storage The current value stream relies on traditional batch processing. Dotted lines are sub-assembly streams Deployment Site #1 Deployment Site #2 Production Storage Maintenance Red needs nuclear security Solid lines are weapon streams Deployment Site #n on-alert CSER 2007, Paper #26

10. A lean value stream eliminates handling, storage & movement muda. Red needs nuclear security * Deployment Site #1 Dotted lines are sub-assembly streams Deployment Site #2 On-site final assembly of nuclear weapons Deployment Site #n * New design options may offer new (more secure) transportation options. on-alert CSER 2007, Paper #26

11. Current Value Stream Full-up weapons exist in numerous configurations Complex & expensive safety & security measures both in weapons & facilities Expense is one driver in multi-decade lifecycle (potential obsolescence) Storage and field maintenance consumes resources & limits options What could lean enable in the NWC? Lean Value Stream • Full-up weapons exists only in on-alert configurations • Safety and security measures of weapon and facility are fully integrated • Reduced overhead enables weapon lifecycle ~ decade (readily update technology ) • Eliminating storage and field maintenance frees up additional resources CSER 2007, Paper #26

12. Lean enables change, helping public institutions achieve mission success. • Conclusion: Enterprises must adapt to disruptive changes in the environment; waste (muda) inhibits necessary change. • Much fruitful study remains: • Effective use of lean, agile & robust processes • Principles of resilient infrastructures • Defining value (broad political & public interests) • Feedback mechanisms for public institutions (understanding the problem space) CSER 2007, Paper #26