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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 19, 2017. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 19, 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over parts of Afghanistan, southcentral India, south Korea, Japan, Papa New Guinea, parts of southeastern China, and large parts of Australia. During same period, rainfall excess is noted over northeastern India, Bangladesh, and many southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea area including the Philippines
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, overall, below normal rainfall situation is noted eastern central India, southwestern China and southwestern/southeastern Australia, but the longer term rainfall deficits remain still remain over Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall anomaly pattern is near or slightly above normal.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been deficient across central India, eastern China, Koreas, Japan and over the Philippines. East coast of China got rain from the tropical storm Merbok last week. The India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting that the monsoon, so far since the beginning of June, is overall about 5% above normal across India. The monsoon has now advanced over all of south and eastern India, and is yet to advance into central, northern and western India.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over parts of Afghanistan, southcentral India, south Korea, Japan, Papa New Guinea, parts of southeastern China, and large parts of Australia. During same period, rainfall excess is noted over northeastern India, Bangladesh, and many southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea area including the Philippines. For the past 30 days, overall, below normal rainfall situation is noted eastern central India, southwestern China and southwestern/southeastern Australia, but the longer term rainfall deficits remain still remain over Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall anomaly pattern is near or slightly above normal. In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been deficient across central India, eastern China, Koreas, Japan and over the Philippines. East coast of China got rain from the tropical storm Merbok. The India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting that the monsoon, so far since the beginning of June, is overall about 5% above normal across India. The monsoon has now advanced over all of southern and eastern India, and is yet to advance into central, northern and western India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting overall a below normal rainfall pattern, except for some wetness in southern and eastern India, southeastern China.
