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Advanced Student Population Projections

Overview of Projection Factors. Advanced Student Population Projections. Factors That Influence Enrollment. Births in the District area (BIRTH FACTORS) New residential construction (TRACT PHASING and STUDENT YIELD FACTORS) Move in/out of families in existing housing (MOBILITY)

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Advanced Student Population Projections

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  1. Overview of Projection Factors Advanced StudentPopulation Projections

  2. Factors That Influence Enrollment • Births in the District area (BIRTH FACTORS) • New residential construction (TRACT PHASING and STUDENT YIELD FACTORS) • Move in/out of families in existing housing (MOBILITY) • Private school transitions (MOBILITY) • Drop-outs (MOBILITY) • Residential redevelopment (MOBILITY and TRACT PHASING and STUDENT YIELD FACTORS) • Parcel splits (MOBILITY)

  3. Future Kindergarten Classes Estimates from Birth Data Birth Data Sources: • State’s Department of Public Health or Vital Statistics • Counties • Data usually available by zip code • You should correlate data to rough District or attendance area boundaries – maybe not exact, but close enough

  4. Future Kindergarten Classes Estimates from Birth Data Birth Data: • Assists in estimating future kindergarten class sizes • Most children are 5 years old entering kindergarten • Compare the number of births within the District(or attendance areas) from five years ago with the most recent birth data to estimate future trends in kindergarten classes • Future K class size usually corresponds to recent birth trends EXAMPLE OF A BIRTH FACTORSPREADSHEET

  5. Residential Development Data Maintain a Residential Development Tract layer that contains certain fields updated regularly.

  6. …to generate a table that can be read into Excel… …and a Development Summary can be prepared. SAMPLE Residential Development Data You can export the Development data in SchoolSite Projections…

  7. Student Yield Factors (SYF’s) NEW HOUSING UNITS MULTIPLIED BY THE APPROPRIATE STUDENT YIELD FACTOR ESTIMATES STUDENT GENERATED FROM FUTURE RESIDENTIALCONSTRUCTION. This example shows a listing for units built within the last 5 years. And also has the Student Yields broken down by specific grade groupings and by housing type. You have the ability to focused upon a specific type of housing such as ”affordable housing” in a specific area and produce a different rate than the newer apartments units being built.

  8. Calculating Student Yield Factors • Also referred to as Student Generation Rates (SGR’s) • To Calculate these rates, two data sets are required: Assessor parcel information and geocoded students. An example of a layer of individually mapped Assessor Parcel polygons An example of geocoded parcel data and student points (simultaneous selection)

  9. Calculating Student Yield Factors EXERCISE #1 Go to the SYF_Study.mxd where you have been set-up to begin querying and calculating Student Yield Factors

  10. Calculating the Mobility Factors ISSUES TO ADDRESS • Do I have student data at the study area level? • And if so, how many consecutive years do I have? • What boundary areas do I want to use as my criteria? DDP’s Ideal Situation: • 4 consecutive years of geocoded student data (that would provide 3 years of change) • Use boundaries that would break the District up into 3-5 attendance areas or regions (to capture data specific to certain areas in the District)

  11. Remember to keep track of what year/month the student data represents when using multiple files. Calculating the Mobility Factors Individual grade counts The SchoolSite Projection Module will summarize your student data by grade and by study area. By Study Area You can click on the export button and save the table as a DBF to open and query in Excel.

  12. Calculating the Mobility Factors Or you can scroll through the individual Study Area reports to choose the appropriate study areas to use (large enough sample in built-out areas) and then manually type the “actual” grade grouping counts into the Excel spreadsheet. Ignore the projected figures and focus on the “actual” counts

  13. Less students from year to year = mobility less than 1.0 More students from year to year = mobility more than 1.0 Calculating the Mobility Factors Ideally, you want to use the established, built-out Study Areas with no new development (especially within the last five years) If there is not enough historically geocoded student data, then the next best analysis would be by individual annual student counts by school or District-wide

  14. Calculating the Mobility Factors Let’s calculate Mobility Factors using historically mapped student data EXERCISE #2 Exported annual student counts from SchoolSite (in DBF format) (SchoolSite will summarize all K-12 student counts by Study Area) Open it up in Excel and begin inputting data into the provided template

  15. Creating Projection Factors in SchoolSite QUESTIONS?

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