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Lincolnshire’s Changing Population

Lincolnshire’s Changing Population. Components of Change and the Demographic Impact. Eleanor Spillane Senior Projects Officer. Highlight the datasets that can be used to estimate population Describe the underlying factors driving population change Consider the impact on county demographics

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Lincolnshire’s Changing Population

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  1. Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change and the Demographic Impact Eleanor Spillane Senior Projects Officer

  2. Highlight the datasets that can be used to estimate population Describe the underlying factors driving population change Consider the impact on county demographics Introduce the population projections This presentation will:

  3. Datasets School Census Census population NHS patient lists NINo allocations International Passengers Population estimates Resident population Births and deaths Populationprojections Long Term Migrants Worker Registrations Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registrations

  4. Population Growth in Lincolnshire 2010 703,000 1871-1971 Approx. 150,000 people 1,500 per year People 1971-2001 Almost 150,000 Almost 5,000 per year

  5. 1871 1891 1911 1931 1951 1971 1991 2011 2031 Population Growth 900,000 Lincs 600,000 England 300,000 Index 100

  6. 1990s 2000s Population Growth in Lincolnshire %

  7. Witham St Hughs 76% 2,000 people Wyberton 10% 400 people Quarrington 55% 1,500 people Market Deeping 6.5% 400 people Population Change since 2001

  8. Components of Change Births and deaths Released as part of the ONS Population Estimates Taken from the civil registration system Applied to authority of residence

  9. Natural Change Lincolnshire East Lindsey SH West Lindsey Boston NK Lincoln South Kesteven

  10. Births and deaths People

  11. Births and Deaths Population estimates Migration ‘000 people Births and deaths

  12. Components of Change Births and deaths Internal Migration National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) Transferring patient notifications

  13. Internal Migration In

  14. Internal Migration In Out

  15. Internal Migration Low house prices In 9,400 Out Recession

  16. Internal Migration to Lincolnshire2006 - 2010 ‘000 people

  17. Components of Change International Migration Internal Migration Births and deaths

  18. Datasets School Census Census population NHS patient lists NINo allocations International Passengers Population estimates Resident population Births and deaths Populationprojections Long Term Migrants Worker Registrations Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registrations

  19. EU 591,000 179,000 rest of world 322,000 International Migration 2010 90,000 Britain +252,000 99,000 EU 339,000 104,000 rest of world 136,000 Britain

  20. Datasets School Census Census population NINo allocations International Passengers Population estimates Resident population Long Term Migrants Worker Registrations Flag 4 Registrations

  21. National Insurance Number Registrations (NINo) Registrations

  22. NINOs by DistrictLast 5 Years 3% 12% 34% 22% 8% 6% 16% 32,920 registrations in the county since 2006/07

  23. Datasets School Census Census population NINo allocations International Passengers Population estimates Resident population Long Term Migrants Worker Registrations Flag 4 Registrations

  24. Flag 4 GP Registrations Registrations

  25. English as an Additional Language Over 100,000 pupils Nearly 5,000 have English as an additional language 3% 30% 15% 18% 7% 21% 5%

  26. Datasets School Census Census population NINo allocations International Passengers Population estimates Resident population Long Term Migrants Worker Registrations Flag 4 Registrations

  27. Resident population 690,000 UK Non-UK 646,000 45,000 Non-EU EU 16,000 29,000

  28. Population growth driven by migration Increasing birth rate in recent years In-migration rising again after 2 years of decline Major source of international migrants changed from Portugal to Lithuania http://shared.research-lincs.org.uk Key Points

  29. Births and deaths Internal Migration International Migration Components of Change =

  30. Change by Age Group

  31. Change by Age Group University opens

  32. Change by Age Group Peak of internal migration

  33. Change by Age Group

  34. Age Profile

  35. Datasets School Census Census population NHS patient lists NINo allocations International Passengers Population estimates Resident population Births and deaths Populationprojections Long Term Migrants Worker Registrations Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registrations

  36. Population Growth 1871-1971 Approx. 150,000 people 1,500 per year 2011-2031 Approx. 116,000 5,800 per year 1971-2011 Over 200,000 Over 5,000 per year

  37. Population Projections People

  38. Population Projections People

  39. Population Projections People

  40. Population Projections People

  41. Population Projections People

  42. Population Projections People

  43. Population Projections People

  44. Population Projections People

  45. Population Projections People

  46. Population Projections People

  47. Population Projections People

  48. Population Projections People

  49. Population Projections People

  50. Population Projections People

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