Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability assessment

1. Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability assessment Trinity International Development Initiative Dr. Elizabeth Cullen 10th November 2011

2. ‘Every doctor should know what to expect of the weather’ Hippocrates 400 B.C

3. Summary of presentation • Climate change • Impacts on health • Conclusions

4. Source: Hadley Centre 2005 Source: Hadley Centre 2005

7. A climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system and combines known laws of physics with factors such as climatic parameters and atmospheric factors to compute the evolving state of the climate in response to the changing composition of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004) Climate model

10. Impacts of climate change on health in Ireland • Temperature related mortality • Food-borne disease • Water-borne disease • Vector-borne diseases • Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, skin cancer

12. Reductions in mortality, particularly from cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and principally in the over 75 age group

13. Future changes in temperature related mortality

15. Foodborne disease

18. Foodborne disease For every 1 degree rise in mean temperature: • Salmonella 8% rise • Campylobacter 6% rise • VTEC 6% rise

19. Water-borne disease “”Water quality is only of importance to you if you use a tap or a toilet” Boyden, 2006

20. Climate change and rainfall in Ireland • Wide-spread reduction in rain in East and South-East • Increase in winter rain in the West • Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger area and persist for longer periods of time.

21. Water quality and health: a multi-factorial issue Warmer temperatures - growth of micro-organisms Increased run-off and flooding VTEC and cryptosporidiosis Water treatment plants need urgent attention

22. Flooding No warning Night time Cold • Immediate • Mortality, trauma, pollution • Delayed Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections, dampness, asthma • Psychological

23. Reduced water supplies Increased demand for water Population increases in the East Warmer temperatures Increased use of surface water Decreased efficiency of treatment plants

24. EU Water Framework Directive • To achieve ‘good status’ for all water bodies by 2015 • New Drinking Water Regulations – will result in improved drinking water quality

25. ‘Safe water cannot be taken for granted’. (Wall 2001)

26. Other indirect effects Malaria and Lyme disease Skin cancer Allergies

27. Summary of findings • Less temperature related mortality • Increase in food-borne disease • Increase in water-borne disease • Change in vector-borne diseases • Increase in skin cancer • Change in timing and location of allergic diseases

28. Recommendations • Heat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ register • Food hygiene • WFD and Drinking Water regulations are public health issues • Education re exposure to sun

29. Africa • Increase heat stress and drought -human and animal mortality • Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and South Africa and decrease in Central Africa • Changes in tsetse fly distribution • Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - meningitis belt • Increased flooding in Eastern Africa

30. Drought Zambia 2002 Photo 2002 Richard Lord / UMCOR

31. The most important challenge is the limited capacity for research and adaptation in low- and middle-income countries” • IPCC Fourth Report 2007

32. Conclusion • Imbalance between human activity and environment diminish life support systems • Climate is a life supporting system • We need to address the causes

33. “We are in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have”. Douglas Kennedy 2006

35. I would like to acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Geography, NUI Maynooth Environmental Protection Agency Thank you