1 / 10

Modeling the population dynamics of HIV/AIDS

Modeling the population dynamics of HIV/AIDS. Brandy L. Rapatski James A. Yorke Frederick Suppe. Primary Goal. To determine how infectiousness of HIV varies as an untreated infected gay man progresses through 3 stages of the disease .

finian
Download Presentation

Modeling the population dynamics of HIV/AIDS

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Modeling the population dynamics of HIV/AIDS Brandy L. Rapatski James A. Yorke Frederick Suppe

  2. Primary Goal To determine how infectiousness of HIV varies as an untreated infected gay man progresses through 3 stages of the disease. Any attempt to measure these infectivities must be a highly mathematical analysis of available data.

  3. Modeling SF Gay Population • We model the San Francisco population as described by the San Francisco City Clinic Cohort Study (SFCCC).

  4. San Francisco Transmission Dynamics • Analysis of 1978-1984 • Six Activity Levels (from survey data) • Infectiousness depends on stage (3 stages) • Bathhouse Assumption • Men vary in how often they visit the bathhouses but once inside choose partners at random. Model must account for 1978-1984 SF data

  5. Infectivity Per Contact Conclusions 2/3 Year 7 Years 3 Years Death First Stage Infectivity 0.015 Second Stage Infectivity 0.006 Third Stage Infectivity 0.223 0.015*2/3=0.010 0.006*7=0.042 0.223*3=0.669 Total infections = 0.721

  6. Infectivity Comparison

  7. Viral Loads Our infectivities correspond to viral loads [------------------2nd Stage-------------------] [1st Stage] [-----3rd Stage----] Variable viral loads over the course of a typical untreated individual’s HIV infection.

  8. The infectivities reflect the pattern of semen infectivity. Though infectivity depends on mode of transmission, third stage remains most infectious.

  9. Person-to-Person Transition Rate Africa: 1 person to 1,000,000 in approximately 40 years (1950-1990) 1.3 years 1.6 ~31 generations in 40 years 6.9 years 10 ~6 generations in 40 years

  10. Contact Information BLR@math.umd.edu http://www.killi.com/brandy

More Related