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DJF Surface Temperature Anomaly NCEP Reanalysis

2002-03 Winter SFC Temperature Forecast. CPC Forecast. DJF Surface Temperature Anomaly NCEP Reanalysis. 2002-03 Winter Outlook by Joe D’Aleo. Empirical Consideration El Nino – a moderate event and then declining AO - most negative in the 53 year record PDO – negative phase

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DJF Surface Temperature Anomaly NCEP Reanalysis

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  1. 2002-03 Winter SFC Temperature Forecast CPC Forecast DJF Surface Temperature Anomaly NCEP Reanalysis

  2. 2002-03 Winter Outlook by Joe D’Aleo • Empirical Consideration • El Nino – a moderate event and then declining • AO - most negative in the 53 year record • PDO – negative phase • QBO – westerly phase • Solar activity - declining phase of 11-year sunspot cycle “Evidence for high solar flux’s influence on global climate and model performance during recent seasons and use of flux in combination with other climate factors (ENSO, PDO, QBO) in NAO/AO winter season prediction” - NCEP Seminar 11/25/02

  3. Temperature Anomaly Joe D’Aleo Forecast for DJFM NCDC Verification for DJF Question:How important are the factors other than El Nino? Back

  4. CDC Multi GCM Ave Hindcast Using Observed SST DJF 2002/03 Surface Temperature Anomaly Verification Courtesy M. Hoerling (2003)

  5. NOAA/NWS/CPC Administrator’s MetricsSeasonal Temperature Forecast Skill Back From James D. Laver (2003)

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