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AMAP coordinates national programs to provide information on spatial trends in contaminants, biological/ecological effects, climate change, predictive capacity, and combined effects on humans and ecosystems in the Arctic. Ongoing initiatives include SAON, AACA, SWIPA, and SLCF assessments. The Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic project focuses on improving climate predictions and implementing adaptation actions through workshops and regional reports. Priority sectors include industrialization, transportation, tourism, fisheries, ecosystem services, and water/food availability and quality.
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Arctic monitoring and research activities: As part of its ongoing work, AMAP will continue to coordinate, based largely on national programs, to provide the information necessary for assessment of relevant issues such as: • spatial and temporal trends in levels of contaminants in Arctic ecosystems including humans; • biological/ecological effects of contaminants and associated trends, including human health effects; • climate change, including ocean acidification, SLCFs and cryosphere studies; • effects of climate variability and change; • improved predictive capacity through increased observations, research and understanding of processes governing changes in the Arctic; • human and ecosystem health effects; and • combined effects of contaminants, climate change and other stressors, including effects on humans.
Some ongoing initiatives • SAON – cooperation between AC & IASC • AACA – Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic to be delivered in 2017, • SWIPA follow up; to be ready 2016, • POPs & Radionuclides, to be ready 2016 • Human health, to be ready 2016 • Arctic Ocean Acidification II, to be ready 2016 • SLCF - updated assessments on black carbon, CH4and tropospheric ozone will be presented in 2015
Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic – part C: • Work will continue on Arctic-focused climate and integrated environmental frameworks/models that can improve predictions of climate change and other relevant drivers of Arctic change in order to improve predictions and implementation of adaptation actions. • An interim reports will be presented in early 2016 and final integrated report will be produced in early 2017. The main work is organised around workshops started in 2013, with follow-up in 2014, with experts, indigenous and local peoples, governments and stakeholders, focusing on 3 selected regions and prioritised sectors. • These will clarify the basis for adaptation strategies to meet user needs and analyseconsequences that may occur in relation to combined effects on ecosystems and socio-economic development. • Information for relevant sectors will be compiled and evaluated, and integrated regional reports and other products will be prepared to improve predictive capability of the consequences of climate change and other relevant drivers of change.
Climate scenarios are the backbone of the AACA-C project. In October 2012 a climate scenario workshop was held in Seattle, to discuss short-term and long-term projections and scenarios for climate change in the Arctic (2030 and 2080 time slices). A second workshop, held in April 2013 in St.Petersburg broadened the work done at the Seattle workshop on projections on increased temperature and ice-melting to include consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystems, biodiversity, human health, transport, socio-economic adaptations, etc. The outcome of the workshop will set the framework for future action. Three geographical areas have been proposed for regional implementation activities: 1) Barents and adjacent coastal and land areas; 2) Bering Sea/Chukchi Sea/Beaufort Sea and adjacent coastal and land areas; and 3) David Strait/Baffin Bay and adjacent coastal and land areas. The following have been identified as priority sectors in the implementation work: • industrialisation/mining/energy; • transportation and shipping; • tourism; • fisheries; • integrity of ecosystem services; and • water and food availability and quality.
