Critical Aspects of Vermont ATOD Data

1. Critical Aspects of Vermont ATOD Data John S. Searles, Ph.D. Substance Abuse Research and Policy Analyst

3. State Epidemiological Workgroup (SEW):Data-Driven Prevention Kelly Hale LaMonda, Chair

4. The Mathematical Basis of Data Analysis x   =   {q + [q2 + (r-p2)3]1/2}1/3   +   {q - [q2 + (r-p2)3]1/2}1/3   +   p where p = -b/(3a),   q = p3 + (bc-3ad)/(6a2),   r = c/(3a) And

5. The Mathematical Basis of Data Analysis - Explained • "Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don’t know.” • Donald Rumsfeld, Feburary 12, 2002

6. State Epidemiological Data Systems (SEDS) • Key constructs (e.g., mortality) and indicators (e.g., motor vehicle crash deaths) related to substance use and consequences by type (alcohol, tobacco, illicit drugs) • Contains data available from national sources only (at lowest level available) (e.g., YRBSS, FARS, UCR, NVSS, NSDUH) • Downloadable zip files of State data

7. Using Epidemiological DataSome Problems • State Epidemiological Data Systems (SEDS) [From CSAP] • Not up-to-date • Not complete • Sometimes not relevant to Vermont

8. Using Epidemiological DataOther State Sources • Distribution of population (geographic, age) • Local crime data (DUI by County) • Treatment data • Hospital discharge data • OMG Factor • ICD-9/10 Codes • No standard or uniform coding procedures • $ not #

10. “Drill Down” Data Sources • BRFSS • Data Limitations for 18-24 year olds • YRBS • County • SU • School • Limited to students in school

11. Gaps • 18-24 year olds • Students • Non Students • BRFSS does not sample cell phone users • 10% of all households are now wireless • Prescription Drug Abuse • Data Lags • Looking at “Rapid Response” options

12. TOBACCO

13. Current Smokers in Vermont(BRFSS)

14. Current Smokers in VermontYRBS

16. Binge Drinking in VTBRFSS by County and Age Group

17. ALCOHOL

19. Past 30-Day Use of AlcoholYRBS

20. Past 30-Day BingeYRBS

23. MARIJUANA

24. Past 30-Day Marijuana UseYRBS

25. Past 30-Day Mja Use by Grade and Gender - YRBS

28. OTHER DRUGS(Including Prescription Drugs of Abuse)

29. YRBS Drug Use

31. Illicit Drug Use 2002-2004National Survey on Drug Use and Health

32. Illicit Drug Use 2002-2004National Survey on Drug Use and Health

33. Treatment for Opiate Addiction(Other than Heroin)

34. Surrogate Indicators

35. DOC by Age and County

36. Robbery Crime Rate

37. Prescription Drug Abuse I

38. Prescription Drug Abuse II

39. Prescription Drug Abuse III

40. Indicator of Increasing Problems with Potential Drugs of Abuse • FACT: From 2001 to 2005, DEA drug arrests in Vermont went from 15 to 56 • INTERPRETATION: There is an increasing problem with prescription drugs in Vermont

41. DEA Arrests in Vermont

42. History of VDH Obscure Milwaukee Brewers Torturing the Data Evidence-Based Prevention Programs Intervening Variables $200 $200 $200 $200 $200 $400 $400 $400 $400 $400 $600 $600 $600 $600 $600 $800 $800 $800 $800 $800 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000 $1000

43. “I’ll take ‘Torturing the Data’ for $1000, Alex”

44. DEA Arrests in Vermont

45. DEA Arrests in Vermont

46. DEA Arrests in Vermont

47. DEA Arrests in Vermont

48. DEA Arrests in Vermont

50. Assessing Burden and Determining Substance-Related Problems The most influential criteria used by the SEW to identify statewide priorities were: • Vermont’s ranking relative to other states • Relative prevalence within Vermont • Trends