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SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE

Explore key issues in combining data from different ensemble models for improved tropical weather prediction. Short-term requirements focus on tools for tropical convection, while longer-term goals include generating user-driven products and enhancing verification methods.

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SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE

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  1. SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE SG-SWFDP 23 Feb 2010

  2. The key issue: how to combine data from different ensembles • Until we know more about this, our requirements can only be very usual ones • 2 sets of requirements: • Short term • Longer term

  3. Short-term requirements Usual stuff: …

  4. Tools for Tropical Convection • Tropical convection is key to severe weather prediction in many developing countries • Global models are generally poor due to parameterized convection • Research required into better diagnostics • Non-hydrostatic hi-res modeling – expensive! • Feature based diagnostics eg convergence lines • More reliable model field indicators eg mid-level moisture fields (found useful in N. Australia) • Downscaling – how to estimate peak convective rainfall accumulations from grid-box average parameterized amounts • Calibration

  5. Long term requirements • Possibility of generating products from any combination of TIGGE data-base of EPS • Guidance on how to combine fields usefully • Scientific basis => more research needed!

  6. Tropical Cyclone Issues • Position and intensity prediction (probabilistic) • Probabilities relative to user defined thresholds: • Wind strength • Quantitative Precipitation • Surge • Cyclone following and gridded probabilities • Strike probabilities at user defined points • Probability of time of arrival of max rainfall, wind thresholds at user defined points

  7. Even longer term requirement: interactive capability which would permit centres, especially regional centres, to generate user driven products, depending on the nature of events and situations • Products using local SWFDP thresholds • Interactive EPSgrams (locations, parameters) • …

  8. Verification • Improved objective verification of relevant severe weather phenomena and impacts • Including SERA impact verification • Consistent observational data • Methods for verification of warnings which may be probabilistic or « low confidence over a large area »

  9. SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE Timeline: End of 2010 

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