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Slides for GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting #9 Aug-Sep 2011

Slides for GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting #9 Aug-Sep 2011. Richard Swinbank. TIGGE Research. Richard Swinbank. How can we further increase impact of TIGGE on research?. Publicity New leaflet Website How to publicise better to universities? Scientific publications Conferences/meetings

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Slides for GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting #9 Aug-Sep 2011

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  1. Slides for GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting #9Aug-Sep 2011 Richard Swinbank

  2. TIGGE Research Richard Swinbank

  3. How can we further increase impact of TIGGE on research? • Publicity • New leaflet • Website • How to publicise better to universities? • Scientific publications • Conferences/meetings • THORPEX symposia & regional meetings • Other conference & workshops IAMAS, AMS, EMS, AGU… • Communications • tiggeusers mailing list hardly used • What about social media: facebook, twitter…? • How else?

  4. Research needs and priorities • Current emphasis • Calibration and combination methods • Bias correction, downscaling • Multi-model ensembles; reforecasts • Development of probabilistic forecast products – GIFS development • Tropical cyclones (CXML-based) • Gridded data: heavy precipitation; strong winds • Focus on downstream use of ensembles

  5. Research needs and priorities • But other important areas for EPSs include • Initial conditions – link with ensemble data assimilation (DAOS) • Representing model error – stochastic physics (PDP, WGNE) • Seamless forecasting – links with sub-seasonal forecasting (new project) • Convective-scale ensembles (TIGGE-LAM, MWFR) • But these areas, particularly first two, are important for improving EPS skill and products. • TIGGE is an excellent resource for comparing EPSs.

  6. Ensemble Forecasts Evaluate, Diagnose Develop, Improve Virtuous Circle To improve EPSs we should focus more on developing this virtuous circle

  7. TIGGE development GIFS Products EPS improvement Evolution of TIGGE & GIFS Time • The initial focus of GIFS-TIGGE WG was on establishing the TIGGE database. • We then broadened our scope to include downstream ensemble combination, calibration & product development for GIFS. • We should also use the WG as a forum to discuss R&D focused on improving our EPS systems.

  8. GIFS development -next steps Richard Swinbank

  9. GIFS current status • CXML TC track predictions being exchanged • Some work on TC products using CXML at various centres • MRI/JMA, NOAA/ESRL, UKMO, M-F(?)

  10. GIFS survey • Which TIGGE partners are developing products to support TC forecasting? • Who are developing the products? • Those people should be the core of the TC product focus group • Similar question for precipitation / gridded products

  11. Focus Groups • What do we mean by a focus group? • People with common interest • Willing to collaborate and share ideas, algorithms, software. • Coordination • Ensure good communication

  12. Progressing GIFS • Extend GEO-WOW partnership to wider community. • Build links with SWFDP • Regional/RSMC level contacts • Understand user requirements • MRI/JMA website good basis for further development of GIFS products • Scope for adding new types of products, new regions • Adapt approach for SWFDP websites?

  13. Facilitating GIFS development • Real-time access to ensemble data • Extension of SWFDP agreements? • Evaluation / verification • Within context of SWFDP • How to support real-time production • Distributing effort • Data exchange logistics

  14. Longer-term outlook for GIFS-TIGGE Richard Swinbank

  15. Future of TIGGE • Dependant on • Support of archive centres (primarily) and data providers • Being well used by researchers • Usefulness for improving NWP (GIFS development) • Still seen as covering a relatively short time span for some research studies

  16. Beyond 2014 • THORPEX completes its decade in 2014 • What next for TIGGE and GIFS and GIFS-TIGGE WG? • Part of possible new environmental prediction research initiative.

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