Introduction to occupational Projections

1. Introduction to occupational Projections PMP SummitOctober 2018Arlington, VA Lecia Parks Langston Senior Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services

2. remember Detailed instructions for many procedures can be found at:supportprojectionscentral.com The help function in Projections Suite also provides detailed information for using the software. Online training for the software is available at:projectionstraining.com Make sure you’ve viewed the pre-Summit webinars.

3. remember Unfortunately, you won’t always have the data available to generate the projections the way you would like. Be creative in finding ways to estimate missing staffing patterns. Use your analyst powers to make your projections the best they can be.

4. BASICS Running occupational projections Step by Step. . . • Managing Directories • Importing Industry Projections (ICT files) and Staffing Patterns • Review Staffing Patterns • Prepare to Run • Run Projections • Review Projections • Publish Projections

5. Managing Directories A Few Preliminaries

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7. Manage Areas You may need to manage your areas • PS preloaded with many areas • All states and territories • Counties • Statistical Areas • Area codes from ICT file and Staffing Patterns must be the same. • Make sure area codes correspond to your WID database. • Don’t break OES sample areas (if politically possible).

8. Slide Title Just because you can get county-level data from LEWIS doesn’t mean you should do projections at that level.

9. AREA MANAGEMENT To add group, right-click, then “Create Area Group” Not all substate areas Click “arrows” to see area directory and codes To add area to group, right-click then “Add to Existing Group” To add area, right-click then “Add Area”

10. Industry and Occupational Directories

11. Industry and Occupational Directories • Procedures similar to “Manage Areas” • Use to change or shorten titles. • Use if you need to add industries or occupations to the directory for state-specific needs. • You can’t project for an occupation/industry unless it is in the directory.

12. Importing basic Files You’ll need industry projections and staffing patterns

13. START HERE • Industry Projections (Industry Control Totals—ICT File) • Staffing Patterns (files primarily from LEWIS)

14. Industry Projections • Typically from Projections Suite; can be from other sources. • If Projections Suite was used for industry projections, no need to import. They are already in the Suite. • Otherwise import; file format in PS “help.” • ICT controls the dates for projections—base year and projections year. • Industry Projections must be imported or completedBEFORE importing staffing patterns.

15. Importing Industry Projections HELP • If importing industry projections from other sources, see Help button in Projections Suite for instructions. • File formats can be found under Section III.

16. Industry Projections • Special Industry Cases • Noncovered (Not in QCEW) • Railroads • Religious Organizations • Agriculture • Private Households Workers • Self-employed/Unpaid Family Workers

17. Industry Projections Special Cases • Postal Service –not included in federal employment • Educational Services—can include all ownerships (private and public) • Hospitals—can include all ownerships (private and public)

18. STAFFING PATTERNS • The vast majority of staffing patterns come from LEWIS • Local Employment and Wage Information System software • Uses Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) data.

19. STAFFING PATTERNS • You can install the software and export patterns yourself. (http://www.lewissupport.com/) • Requires files from your OES Staff.

20. STAFFING PATTERNS • Directions for extracting staffing patterns are on the supportprojections website under resources (also in resource packet). • You can request files from OES Staff.

21. STAFFING PATTERNS MAKE SURE area codes of industry projections and staffing pattern export match!

22. Importing Staffing Patterns • Which year to use? • PMP provides guidance in the deliverable documents. • You are not limited to just the deliverable time frames.

23. Importing Staffing Patterns

24. Importing Staffing Patterns • You can import your own nonLEWIS staffing patterns if needed. • Be sure to check the Rollup to ICT box if not all projections are at the 4-digit NAICS.

25. Supplemental sources of staffing information • National staffing patterns (included in Projections Suite) • Other states • Census Bureau PUMS data census.gov • Health Professions State Profiles https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bhw/nchwa/state-profiles/usworkforcestateprofiles.pdf • State Departments of Education • Directories • Special surveys

26. Handling Self-Employment • You can use your own industry estimates and projections or let the system generate totals for you.

27. REVIEW before you run Don’t forget this important step

28. The Importance of Reviewing Staffing Patterns • The Occupational Statistics Program is a large and wonderful survey. • However, it is not perfect—particularly for small states and/or substate areas. • Imputed data can be a particular problem.

29. The Importance of Reviewing Staffing Patterns • Saving yourself from personal embarrassment.

30. Reviewing and Editing Staffing Patterns

31. Check to make the “Industry Total” and the Staffing Pattern are roughly equal Why don’t they match???

32. Reviewing and Editing Staffing Patterns Select Industry to Review Right-click to edit levels Click to sort by field

33. Make friends with LEWIS Local Employment and Wage Information System

34. LEWIS • Includes the detailed information that can help you analyze the validity of your staffing pattern data and improve your final projections. • Is it large enough to worry about? • Consult with your OES team. . . Or . . . • Check it out in LEWIS yourself.

35. Select the appropriate NAICS level from the estimates directory 1. Double Click appropriate NAICS level

36. 2. Select “Results” Tab

37. 3. Select Industry from dropdown 4. Double click on problem occupation

38. 5. Select Schedules tab

39. 6. Double click schedule

40. 7. Select Occupational Detail tab Information

41. Wage categories Not the sum of the detail

42. Reviewing and Editing Staffing Patterns Can delete all staffing patterns or a single industry (right-click)

43. The short list. . . • Select appropriate NAICS estimate • “Results” tab • Select industry • Select occupation • “Schedules” tab • Click on desired “schedule” number • Check “Status” • “Occupational Detail” tab

44. Common Staffing Pattern Problems • Imputed data • NAICS miscodes (you might want to share with your BLS team) • Leave it or go back to industry projections • Occupational miscodes • Check online employment postings. • Survey schedule is heavily weighted and doesn’t reflect the overall industry. • Back out employment using weights.

45. Common Staffing Pattern Problems • Major employer missing from staffing pattern or has a “bad” pattern. • Can use an old staffing pattern. • Bad location codes or all worksite employment reported for just one site. • National staffing patterns not reflective of your area. • Self-employment estimates • Review for reasonableness • Using PUMS data from the American Community Survey can provide insights.

46. Common “Problem” Occupations • Teachers and Instructional Coordinators • Total may be right but distribution between kindergarten, elementary, middle and secondary may be off. • Your state department of education may have information that helps.

47. Common “Problem” Occupations • Doctors/Dentists • Distribution of types of doctors is especially problematic in small areas • Check online directories. • Clergy/religious workers • National staffing pattern may not reflect your area. • Gaming occupations when you don’t have gambling in your state.

48. When to stop? • Will it make a difference to overall projections? • Will it be suppressed anyway? • Am I totally micro-managing?

49. Other stuff. . . • Ratios, Factors, Rates and Assignments • Can be changed/edited. • Will affect all areas! • Should have a valid economic reason

50. Document, document, document • Document the changes you make. • There is a notebook functionin the Projections Suite.