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CMAS Conference 2009 Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions with focus on Benzo[a]Pyrene

CMAS Conference 2009 Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions with focus on Benzo[a]Pyrene. Team: Johannes Bieser , Armin Aulinger, Volker Matthias, Markus Quante GKSS Environmental Chemistry Department. Outline. 1. Introduction 2. Data Sources Changes to the SMOKE model

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CMAS Conference 2009 Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions with focus on Benzo[a]Pyrene

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  1. CMAS Conference 2009 Enhancing SMOKE to create European emissions with focus on Benzo[a]Pyrene Team:Johannes Bieser, Armin Aulinger, Volker Matthias, Markus Quante GKSS Environmental Chemistry Department

  2. Outline 1. Introduction 2. Data Sources Changes to the SMOKE model 4. Comparison with measurements

  3. Why PAHs ? • PAHs imperil humans and ecosystems • highly bioaccumulative (food chain) • persistent in various environmental compartments • significant adverse effects already at low doses • carcinogenic • impair immune system • impair reproduction B(a)P Object of international reduction conventions and national legislation EU: 1 ng/m³ average value in ambient air GB: 0.25 ng/m³ average value in ambient air in 2010 Benzo(a)Pyrene chosen as a lead substance for PAHs

  4. Main BaP Sources today BaP results from incomplete combustion Wood ~ 50% Domestic Combustion Coal Industrial production Industrial combustion Coke Ovens Aluminium Production Vehicle exhausts Diesel Waste Incinerators Wild fires

  5. BaP Sources over time

  6. 2. Data Sources

  7. SMOKE - emissions model Bottom-Up Biogenic emissions model Mobile emissions model 2D-emissions processor Plume in Grid Point source model Top-Down

  8. Area Sources Area Sources

  9. Official Inventories • European Monitoring and Evaluation Program (EMEP) • - Annual emission totals for Europe and surrounding countries • - Species: CO, NOx, SOx, NMVOC, NH3, PM, (POPs, HMs) - Official national reports as well as expert estimates - 11 different Source Sectors (SNAP Sectors)

  10. Global Population of the World • Resolution: 1 x 1 km • Data available for: • 1990 • 1995 • 2000 • 2005 • 2010 • 2015

  11. CORINE Land Cover database 100 x 100 m 1990 & 2000

  12. USGS Global Land cover

  13. NUTS regions • NUTS 0 Country • NUTS 1 3 million to 7 million pers. • NUTS 2 800000 to 3 million pers. • NUTS 3 150000 to 800000 pers.

  14. EUROSTAT • Official European statistics: • Publishes economic, business, social, energy, monetary, trade, • agricultural, environmental statistics - Temporal resolution: monthly - Spatial resolution: county level (NUTS3) - Employment rates for different industrial sectors - Net working times - Animal stocks - Air traffic - Fuel and Energy consumption - …

  15. Point Sources Point Sources

  16. European Point Source Emission Register • Includes: • 12000 point sources • plant type • location • activity • pollutants • inventory years: • 2001 & 2004

  17. Mobile Sources Mobile Sources

  18. openstreetmaps

  19. openstreetmaps

  20. TREMOVE database • Annual per country data: • - 20 European countries • - 6 different transport networks • motorway • non-urban road • urban road • rail • water • air - Vehicle fleet size - Fleet composition • - Fuel consumption • - Total km driven • - Annual total emissions • - 10 different on-road vehicle • categories • moped • motorcycle • car • van • bus • light duty truck • heavy duty 3.5 – 7.5t • heavy duty 7.5 – 16t • heavy duty 16 – 32t • heavy duty > 32t

  21. Biogenic Emissions Biogenic Sources

  22. Biogenic Emissions • Forest cover database • 120 different tree types • Land use data • argicultural usage paterns • land type • Different LAI for winter and summer • Wild fires (not included) • Mineral Dust (not included) Resolution: 1 x 1 km Inventory year: 2000

  23. 2. Changes to SMOKE

  24. Changes to the SMOKE model • Problems: - Very large regions (up to 675000 m² and 80mio. inhabitants) - Temperature dependend emissions (Residential Heating) - Much pre-processing of spatial surrogates

  25. Changes to the SMOKE model Calculated once for each scenario SMKINVEN SPCMAT GRDMAT Calculated for each day SMKMERGE TEMPORAL

  26. Changes to the SMOKE model MCIP meteorologic fields Calculated once for each scenario SMKINVEN SPCMAT GRDMAT NORMAT Calculated for each day SMKMERGE TEMPORAL MODMAT

  27. Changes to the SMOKE model • Advantages - The additional routines can be turned on/off independent from the standard SMOKE modules - Gives better spatial resolution for big regions - Gives better temporal resolution • Daily instead of monthly temporal profile • More realistic annual profile - Can be used with any netCDF file via reference and profile ASCII files

  28. 3. Comparison with measurements

  29. Modelling Domain - 54x54 km grid over Europe - 18x18 km nest North and Baltic Sea • - 30 vertical layers up to 100 hPa - 12 min time steps - Scenario years: 2000 & 2001 - chemical mechanisms CB IV & CB V - meteorology MM5 & CLM - BC from ERA40 • - emissions created with SMOKE: • CO, NOx, SO2, NH3, PM, NMVOC • BaP

  30. Sulfate concentrations Scenario: Grid: 54x54 km Meteorology: MM5 Mechanism: CB IV Years: 2000 & 2001 • 21 Measurement Stations • Daily average values • EMEP Measurement Network

  31. Sulfate concentrations

  32. Ammonium concentrations • 8 Measurement Stations • Daily average values • EMEP Measurement Network

  33. Sulfate concentrations

  34. Nitrate concentrations • 8 Measurement Stations • Daily average values • EMEP Measurement Network

  35. Sulfate concentrations

  36. Ozone & BaP concentrations • 48 Measurement Stations • Hourly average values • EMEP Measurement Network

  37. BaP Measurements Stations measuring BaP Code conc. Sampling depos. sampling Country Station Network ASP 1 week per month 1 wk./m. bulk Sweden Aspvreten EMEP KOS 1 day per week Czech Rep. Kosetice EMEP PAL 1 week per month Finland Pallas EMEP ROE weekly Sweden Rörvik EMEP BOR 1-2 days per week Germany Bornhöved GFEA ZAR 1-2 days per week Germany Zarrentin GFEA RAD every second day Germany Radebeul GFEA WES monthly wet Germany Westerland GFEA ZIN monthly wet Germany Zingst GFEA EMEP: European Monitoring and Evaluation Program GFEA: German Federal Environmental Agencies

  38. BaP Measurements

  39. BaP Measurements

  40. BaP Measurements Annual average concentrations Code observation model NMB correlation 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 ASP 0.048 0.037 0.224 0.232 3.70 5.31 0.44 0.65 KOS 0.169 0.223 0.156 0.132 -0.08 -0.41 0.64 0.47 PAL 0.006 0.031 0.004 0.004 -0.34 -0.87 0.32 0.86 ROE 0.078 0.105 0.064 0.064 -0.18 -0.40 0.72 0.66 BOR 0.100 0.268 0.213 0.210 1.12 -0.22 0.49 0.45 RAD 0.722 0.639 0.234 0.235 -0.68 -0.63 0.70 0.67 ZAR 0.347 0.106 -0.70 0.34

  41. Thank you for your attention!

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