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Some Thoughts on Energy Roger X. Lenard

Some Thoughts on Energy Roger X. Lenard. Overview. Is there really an oil shortage? – Who has the greatest oil reserves in the world? How much do we import? Are renewables the answer to our energy problems? What about AGW?. Substantial Deposits In CONUS.

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Some Thoughts on Energy Roger X. Lenard

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  1. Some Thoughts on EnergyRoger X. Lenard

  2. Overview • Is there really an oil shortage? – Who has the greatest oil reserves in the world? • How much do we import? • Are renewables the answer to our energy problems? • What about AGW?

  3. Substantial Deposits In CONUS The US shale oil reserves contain 2-6 Trillion barrels of recoverable oil This is more than all other countries’ reserves New processes make it very tractable to recover Congress has tied up the exploitation of these reserves

  4. The North Dakota Bakken Field North Dakota is boom-country Bakken field estimates 4.3-400 Billion barrels of oil Easily recoverable Production increasing daily

  5. North Slope Oil Reserve estimates 10-16 Billion bbl Congressionally off limits Takes about 7 years to production We don’t have an oil shortage in US We have an intelligence shortage in Washington DC

  6. US Most Likely reserves • ~3 T bbl in shale recoverable particularly with RF-CFprocesses • >100 B bbls in Bakken • 16 B bbl in North slope • 100 B bbl offshore (?) • 3.2T bbl of proven reserves • We import 13.4 M bbls/day = $1.4 B/day going to dictators and thugs who don’t like us • How hard is this to figure out?

  7. The Myth of Renewables • Renewables are fine except that they are: Expensive, intermittent, and unreliable – other than that, they’re fine • “The wind doesn’t always blow and the sun • doesn’t always shine” • Large hourly fluctuations in wind output (up to • 100% per hour) places tremendous stress on generation systems • Wind almost ideally unsuited seasonally 2008 Texas got 8% of expected wind – expected 1274 MW a complete bust • Need to keep dispatchable power (coal plants) running to compensate for large fluctuations huge costs

  8. Air Force Experience with Alternative Energy • Nellis AFB is nation’s largest PV installation • Provides ~25% of the base’s power • Saves ~1% of annual power bill • ROI is negative • Typical PV efficiency is 11% • New technologies >h at greater cost • Little net benefit • Typical PV installation costs vary • CA costs ~ $9.45/Watt • NM Costs ~ $7.50/Watt • Cost/kW-hr ~3-3.3¢/kW—hr/$/W • ~21-30¢/kW-hr installed • Battery storage ~3X more • Anticipated cost decreases • not yet materialized

  9. Wind: Zero to Negative Correlation Supply-Demand

  10. The Renewable Energy Fraud • Home and commercial renewable energy systems carry a 30% federal income tax credit • Suppose you are rich and buy a 20 kW system for $100,000 • The utility is forced to buy excess power from you for a premium price (particularly in CA) • You get a $30,000 tax credit, and because you are rich, this means $30,000 in your pocket • You can depreciate the rest of 20 years – another $3,500/yr • The utility cost basis goes up so it raises electricity prices to the middle and lower class • The middle and lower class pay higher taxes to support the rich • Don’t believe anything about the administration being for the poor –they-are definitely for the rich

  11. The AGW Fraud • First, the most important GHG is water vapor and clouds • CO2 is about 20% of GHG effect, water vapor 50% and clouds 25% • Other molecules such as methane are thousands of times more powerful GHGs than CO2 • So what do the global warmers claim – that CO2 is a longer lived molecule because its turn-over time is long compared to water – it’s the total amount, not the lifetime • The reality is that water vapor in the atmosphere can be relatively constant, and stratospheric water vapor is very important • That’s why global temperatures are actually falling – see charts

  12. Recent Global Warming has NEGATIVE correlation with CO2 (two sources of the best data)

  13. Global Temperatures Real vs. Fake Real Data Where did the temperature Go? IPCC Manipulated Fake Data: The MWP has disappeared to provide “hockey stick” temperature rise

  14. Why Would the IPCC Manipulate the Data? • It has nothing to do with protecting the environment • Nearly impossible to find one without bias • 1. Climatologist; Academia or Government. • 2. Climatologist or spokesperson; Oil/coal/etc industry. • 3. Politician, Mainstream Media, Lawyer, Hollywood • 4. Those who plan to profit from the crisis. • 5. Those who demand a Socialist society. • 6. Those who fear expansion of Government control. • 7. Global Governance foreigners (UN and America’s other global adversaries). • 8. Meteorologists • My opinion: Use the CO2 scare to control energy • Once you control energy, you control everything • It’s not the environment, it’s money and power and control! CO2 is Plant Food – Not a Pollutant!

  15. The Solution – More Nukes If you’re concerned about GCC Build more nukes Reduce time and cost of licensing Cheap power: production costs ~2¢

  16. Summary • The US has the greatest natural resources in energy of anywhere in the world • These are not technically inaccessible – the are politically inaccessible • We have trillions of barrels of oil either in liquid form (ANWR, deep water drilling) or in shale deposits • Technologies exist to safely recover it • We do not have a shortage of oil – we do have a shortage of brains and guts in Washington • Renewables are intermittent, unreliable and expensive – they are a tax-dodge for the wealthy on the back of the middle class • Nukes are good and there are new approaches starting to appear • Global Warming is a fraud

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