FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: October 31, 2008

1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised: October 31, 2008 • Title: Global Geostationary Fire Monitoring and Applications • Project Type: GOES product development, product improvement, and utilization • Status: Renewal • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • Christopher C. Schmidt (CIMSS) • Other Participants: • Robert Rabin (NOAA/NSSL), Phillip Bothwell (NOAA/NWS/SPC) • User Community includes: Shobha Kondragunta (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR), NRL-Monterey, FNMOC, EPA, USFS, hazards monitoring/assessments, global climate change modeling, trace gas/aerosol transport modelers, transportation, air quality agencies, land-use land cover change analyses • Jason Brunner (UW-Madison CIMSS)

2. 2. Project Summary • Expand GOES WF_ABBA trend analysis to extend around the globe, not just the Western Hemisphere.  • Collaborate with the atmospheric modeling community to integrate and assimilate "global" geostationary WF_ABBA fire products into aerosol/trace gas transport models. • Collaborate with Dr. R. Rabin (NOAA/NSSL) and Dr. P. Bothwell (NOAA/NWS, Storm Prediction Center) on applications of Rapid Scan Operations (RSO) GOES fire products for early detection of wildfires and agricultural burning and diurnal monitoring of fire variability for fire weather forecasting.  • Continue to work with GEOSS, GTOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, and CGMS to foster the development and implementation of a global geostationary fire monitoring network with international involvement.

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Climate, Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation • For many years GOES-E/-W were the only operational environmental geostationary platforms with fire monitoring capabilities. With the launch of MSG, MTSAT, FY-2C and future instruments (INSAT-3D, COMS, etc.) this capability is global. In order to successfully use these global products for real-time monitoring, trend analyses and applications in data assimilation and long-range transport, new techniques must be developed to characterize and integrate the data. • This is in support of U.S. and international efforts (IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CGMS, CEOS Constellation Concept) and the GEO 2006 Work Plan (DI-06-13, DI-06-09). • Preliminary studies indicate that time series of GOES RSO fire parameters along with ancillary information may provide enhanced information for fire weather applications. This work was started in FY07 with analyses of several case studies.

4. 4. Methodology • Global trend analysis activities will need to address and characterize the distinct monitoring capabilities of each geostationary platform. This will include incorporating fire/metadata mask information available with the next generation global WF_ABBA (version 6.5) to be released in FY08 and international cal/val studies. Techniques will be developed to compare fire statistics from a variety of sensors (GOES Imager, MET SEVIRI, MTSAT JAMI, etc.).CIMSS will incorporate requirements/suggestions made by IGOS GOFC/GOLD Fire Team. • The global WF_ABBA (version 6.5) will include the addition of FRP and a fire/metadata mask that provides information on processing regions, fire locations, fire confidence, cloud cover, block-out zones, saturated areas, etc. CIMSS will collaborate with the atmospheric modeling community to integrate and assimilate this information from a variety of geostationary sensors into aerosol/trace gas transport models. • Preliminary studies have shown that time series of Rapid Scan fire parameters and ancillary data may provide additional information on diurnal variability of wildfire activity for fire weather forecasting. CIMSS will collaborate with Dr. R. Rabin (NOAA/NSSL) and Dr. P. Bothwell (NOAA/NWS, Storm Prediction Center) to investigate applications of RSO fire radiative power (FRP) in combination with other satellite and surface meteorological observations. • CIMSS will continue to support international satellite fire monitoring efforts by being actively involved in GEOSS, GTOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, and CGMS activities. This includes membership in the GOFC/GOLD Fire Implementation Team and involvement in international planning committees, workshops and technology transfer to global partners in Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, etc. Currently global geostationary fire monitoring is being considered as a CEOS Constellation Concept. Furthermore the GEO 2006 Work Plan calls for the initiation of “a globally coordinated warning system for fire and monitoring for forest conversion, including the development of improved information products and risk assessment models(DI-06-13)” and expanding “the use of meteorological geostationary satellites for the management of non-weather related hazards (DI-06-09).”

5. 5. Expected Outcomes • Implementation of a global fire trend analysis protocol that takes into consideration the unique fire monitoring capabilities of each geostationary platform and allows for consistent spatial, diurnal, and interannual trend analyses around the globe.Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. • Global geostationary fire products will be assimilated into air quality/aerosol transport models in real-time (e.g. NRL/FNMOC NAAPS, INPE CPTEC, etc.). • If successful CIMSS will collaborate with NOAA/NSSL and NOAA/NWS/SPC to implement a RSO time series fire analysis tool in AWIPS. • Participation in international working groups and initiatives (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC GOLD, CGMS, CEOS) will ensure the successful development, implementation, validation and application of coordinated regional and global operational geostationary fire products. One of the primary goals is to become more closely connected to international working groups and inter-agency efforts to gain better insight into the needs of the global user community, to enable better coordination of data sources and products, and to provide input for future missions. • When INSAT-3D becomes available work with user community to submit SPSRB request for fire data and submit PSDI proposal for transition of WF_ABBA support for INSAT-3D to Operations.

6. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones • FY08 • December 2007: Implement WF_ABBA version 6.5 for all geo platforms in near real-time at CIMSS. Provide access to version 6.5 products to modeling community via anonymous ftp at CIMSS. • Status: Code ready June 2008, realtime processing has not commenced • February 2008: Complete WF_ABBA 8 year trend analysis for the Western Hemisphere • Status: Complete • April 2008: Complete evaluation of version 6.5 results for GOES, Met-9, and MTSAT-1R for December 2007 – February 2008. • Status: Incomplete, pending data • May 2008: Complete RSO fire monitoring case study evaluation and determine if results warrant further development/evaluation by fire weather forecasters. (In collaboration with R. Rabin and P. Bothwell) • Status: Complete • July 2008: If RSO study successful, work with fire weather forecasters to evaluate this analysis tool in real-time during the 2008 fire season. (In collaboration with R. Rabin and P. Bothwell) • Status: Awaiting response from Rabin and Bothwell • September 2008: Implement methodology/technique for integration of global fire products for data assimilation, trend analysis and other applications. • Status: Not started • October 2008 – September 2009: Ongoing collaborations with a broad user community to utilize the global WF_ABBA fire products. • Status: Ongoing • October 2007 – September 2008: Support international fire monitoring initiatives/workshops/requests (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, CGMS) as opportunities/issues arise. • Status: Participation has continued, CEOS has been most active in 2008 • October 2008: Implement INSAT-3D version 6.5 in near real-time at CIMSS (if data available) and begin evaluation. • Status: Will be delayed pending delayed launch of INSAT-3D, move to FY09

7. 7. FY09 Milestones • FY09 • February 2009: Evaluate feedback from fire weather forecasters regarding the RSO time series analysis during the 2008 fire season. If positive, assist R. Rabin and P. Bothwell to integrate into AWIPS. • March 2009: Submit publication on 13-year WF_ABBA trend analysis for the Western Hemisphere (1995-2007). This is possible by building on a reanalysis effort funded by NASA for 1995-1999. • June 2009: If project successful, RSO fire time series analysis tool will be implemented into AWIPS. (R. Rabin and P. Bothwell will take the lead on this and CIMSS will assist). • June 2009: Implement INSAT-3D support in WF_ABBA version 6.5 in near real-time at CIMSS (if data available) and begin evaluation. Date may move forward or backward depending upon satellite status. • September 2009: Submit publication on 1 year of global geostationary fire monitoring and integration methodology. • October 2008 – September 2009: Ongoing collaborations with a broad user community to utilize the global WF_ABBA fire products. • September 2009: Publications with the emissions/modeling community on assimilation of the global WF_ABBA fire product. • October 2008 – September 2009: Support international fire monitoring initiatives/workshops/requests (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, CGMS) as opportunities/issues arise.

8. 8. Funding Profile (K) Summary of leveraged funding The values listed represent only those funds that are being leveraged to develop version 6.5 of the global WF_ABBA (NASA IDS and Ground Systems), reanalysis of the 1995-1999 GOES archive (NASA LBA), cal/val (PSDI), and model data assimilation studies (NASA IDS and LBA). 8

9. 9. FY09 Expected Purchase Items • $70,000 FY09 Total Project Budget • (70K): Grant to CIMSS from Jan 09 to Dec 09 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 50K (0.35 FT, 0.12FT) • Contracts: 7K CIMSS Subcontract to Elaine Prins • Software charges: N/A • Equipment: 2K for maintenance/replacement • Travel (2 trips: Madison – AMS Conference; Madison – Intl. GTOS GOFC/GOLD meeting) - 5K • Publication Charges - 6K