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EuroRISK PREVIEW Windstorms Workpackage

EuroRISK PREVIEW Windstorms Workpackage. Ken Mylne, Met Office. Eurorisk PREVIEW Project overview. PREVIEW in some words. A project funded by the European Commission 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted New information services to help risk management Gathering users needs

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EuroRISK PREVIEW Windstorms Workpackage

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  1. EuroRISK PREVIEW Windstorms Workpackage Ken Mylne, Met Office

  2. Eurorisk PREVIEWProject overview

  3. PREVIEW in some words • A project funded by the European Commission • 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted • New information services to help risk management • Gathering users needs • Using the most advanced research and technology • Validation on operational platforms • 58 partners from 15 nations • Scientists • Operators • Industrial companies • End Users • 45 months performance schedule and yearly budget reviews EURORISK consortium

  4. FLOODS Atmospheric Risks services FIRES EURORISK consortium • Meteo France JRC WINDSTORMS • INSA

  5. Geophysical risk services EURORISK consortium Earthquake and Volcanoes Landslides

  6. Man made Risk services - Engineering - Industrial accidents EURORISK consortium General Services - Assets Mapping - Damages estimates - Damages observation

  7. EURORISK consortium Windstorms Workpackage

  8. Components of Package Risk Mapping – Return Periods/ climatology Warnings related to return periods/ normal risks Downscaling to Local Impacts Best Practise Probability Forecasts (Day 10 – Day 1) Civil Protection Response (Demonstration) Training and Awareness

  9. Risk Mapping • Lead: • SMHI • Task: • Map return periods • Estimate climatology

  10. Best Practise Probability Forecasts • Ensemble Forecast inputs: • Medium-Range (3-10 days) • ECMWF • ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5) • Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from: • Meteo-France - PEACE • DWD - SRNWP-PEPS • Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS • Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS • Post-processing…

  11. Site-specific Ensemble Forecasts • Ensemble forecasts will be collected and post-processed on a site-specific basis: • Utilise existing technology/capability • Allows bias correction and calibration • Reduced data volumes for international exchange • Aids combination of multiple forecast inputs in common format • Disadvantage: • Risk of strongest winds falling between site locations • Hi-resolution models and nowcasts add detail in short-range

  12. 100% Prob 0% Products for the Risk Manager • Plot of ensemble spread • Probability graph for multiple severity thresholds

  13. Additional short-range forecasts • Met.no - hi-res downscaling(complex terrain) • Met Office – hi-res downscaling • Met Office – wind nowcasting 12 km (Part Domain) 2 km

  14. Warnings/Downscaling • Lead: • SMHI • Contributors: • SRSA • Task: • Relate forecast probs to return periods • Downscale to identify impact hazards

  15. EMMA Website - for display of warnings

  16. Training & Awareness • Lead: • SMHI • Contributors: • SRSA, Met O • Task: • Train end-users • Workshop topics: • Uncertainty • Best practice forecasting • Risk management • How to get best value for specific users

  17. Civil Protection Response • Lead: • SRSA • Contributors: • All • Task: • Demonstrate application of warnings in Civil Defence • Demonstrate warnings and (potential) responses • Assess impact compared to traditional methods

  18. MetO SMHI SMHI SMHI SRSA SRSA Tasks Lead Contributors Risk Mapping SMHI Probability Forecasts ECMWF, M-F, met.no, DWD, SMHI Warnings Downscaling Training SRSA, MetO Civil Protection Demo

  19. Summary Risk Mapping – Return Periods/ climatology SMHI, IMK Warnings related to return periods/ normal risks SMHI Downscaling to Local Impacts SMHI, SRSA Best Practise Probability Forecasts MetO, ECMWF, M-F, Met.no, DWD, SMHI Civil Protection Response (Demonstration) SRSA Training and Awareness SMHI, SRSA, MetO

  20. WAFC World Area Forecast Centre Accreditation

  21. Questions & Answers

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