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Western Water Supply

Western Water Supply. Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tucson. Western Water Supply History Project overview Westwide map Forecast evolution

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Western Water Supply

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  1. Western Water Supply Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Don Laurine, NWRFC Chad Kahler, WFO Tucson

  2. Western Water Supply History Project overview Westwide map Forecast evolution Verification Ensemble services Future enhancements Climate variability and change Short range ensembles services Outline

  3. Western Water Supply Forecasts • Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow melt dominated basins in western US • Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with other agencies (NRCS and California DWR) • NWS forecast program began in 1940s • Primary forecast tools: • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction • Multivariate Linear Regression Legacy Water Supply Forecast Product (Credit: NRCS / NOAA)

  4. Goals: A “one stop shop” for NWS water information at the seasonal timescale Consistent presentation of products between RFCs Harness collective innovation from multiple offices Users: Existing Water Supply forecast users Strong support from USBR and state water resources agencies for examples Groups with cross basin interests (e.g. media, power companies) NWS internal users Major Components: Map: Single map for all western WS forecasts from 6 RFCs Forecast evolution: Plotting capability to show evolution of current year forecast and observed river flow Verification: Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and forecast tools Ensemble services: Interaction capability with ensemble streamflow predication Project in a Nutshell

  5. Milestones (past): April 2005: Working group formed, planning meeting held January 2006: Initial website launched September 2006: Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in development January 2007: Common database developed March 2007: Launched outreach effort and included SHs Milestones (future): August 2007: Launch verification 1.0 capabilities September 2007: Move software to NWRFC web farm October 2007: Launch forecast evolution 2.0 October 2007: Launch ensemble services 1.0 January 2008: Integrate WGRFC data 2008?: Integrate climate change capabilities Project in a Nutshell (con’t)

  6. Map • www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater • “One Stop Shop” for NWS water supply forecasts • Flexible and consistent map presence across western USA • Zoomable to basin scale • Mouse over capability for forecast values

  7. Forecast Evolution • Evolution of current year forecast and observed streamflow • Options to include: • Normal streamflow volume • Forecast window • Forecast accumulation • Accumulated Observed, etc… • Originally developed at NWRFC • Version 2.0 contract development work proceeding • Add ESP forecasts • Add interactive features

  8. Forecast Verification • Goal: Provide users of all types with forecast verification information • Easy to understand • Meaningful • Accessible from forecasts • Dynamically generated plots from database Plot credit: Chad Kahler

  9. Goals: Intuitive user interface for current ensemble forecast Access to archived streamflow data for perspective Dynamic, flexible plots Access to underlying data and database Climate change scenarios Ensemble Services

  10. Climate Change • Latest IPCC report confirms “temperatures averaged over all habitable continents … will very likely rise at greater than the global average rate in the next 50 years and by an amount substantially in excess of natural variability.” (IPCC WR1, 2007) Source: IPCC, 2007

  11. Trends in 1 Apr SWE over the 1960–2002 (left) and 1950-1997 (right) periods of record directly from snow course observations from Mote (2006) and Mote et al. (2005) respectively.

  12. Extend NWS Product Suite? Years • Current product suite covers hours to seasons; • Should we consider climate change scenarios and build multi-year products for run-off, temperature, precipitation? • User requirements from power companies, USBR, etc for climate change scenarios Climate Change based run off scenarios?

  13. Many in water community are asking for it Idea: Provide scenario based water supply outlooks in the context of historical data and current season forecasts Include uncertainty Temperature, precipitation, and/or lead time based scenarios Ultimately link scenarios to atmospheric carbon based scenarios Leverage historical simulation capabilities in ESP Water Supply withClimate Change

  14. Multiple “historical simulation” runs: Use historical basin temperature and precipitation time series Build ensemble by repeatedly shifting year order by one Incorporate scenarios through additive (temperature) or multiplicative (precipitation) year-wise adjustments Leveraging ESP for long range scenarios

  15. ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point: Columbia River at the Dalles Dam

  16. Western Water Supply History Current capabilities Coming enhancements Verification Water Supply ensemble services Climate Change Summary

  17. Thank YouChad.Kahler@noaa.gov

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