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Alternative Energy Strategies Transitions to renewables and supply security

This presentation discusses alternative energy strategies and transitions to renewables for supply security. It explores the potential to shift a national energy mix through political will and comparative advantage, with examples in biomass mobilization and cleaner fossil fuel systems. It also addresses the importance of energy security in terms of diverse fuel sources, sufficient generation, reliable infrastructure, flexibility in use, and maximum energy efficiency. Case studies from Denmark and Sweden highlight the successful shifts towards decentralized CHP and the substitution of gas with renewable gas. The presentation also considers the feasibility of large-scale renewable energy production through plantation forestry and the potential for biomass-to-liquid (BTL) technology.

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Alternative Energy Strategies Transitions to renewables and supply security

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  1. Alternative Energy StrategiesTransitions to renewables and supply security Philip Peck IIIEE at Lund University, Sweden II Energy Club meeting, Minsk, Belarus, 11 March 2010

  2. Idea generation – thought provocation • Can political will and ‘comparative advantage’ shift a national energy mix ? • Rapidly? • In several sectors? • Can a country substitute TWh scale volumes of gas with renewable gas? • Example 1 – Mobilising biomass resources at large scale • Example 2 – Looking for opportunities for ‘cleaner’ fossil fuel systems

  3. Energy security I... (my view...) • Secure fuel supply from diverse sources: to ensure that there is sufficient fuel to meet demand, and that there are alternative fuel sources if one fails • Sufficient amounts of generation or supply to compensate for unforeseen plant failures • Diverse means of generation: to provide security against any fuel shortages and generic faults in one particular form of generation

  4. Energy security II... (my view...) • Reliable energy infrastructure: to ensure that energy is transported to the point of use effectively • Flexibility in use: the ability to reduce demand if necessary, or to use an alternative form of energy • Maximum energy efficiency at point of use eg buildings, vehicles and appliances

  5. Shift an energy mix? Can political will and ‘comparative advantage’ shift an energy mix ?

  6. Denmark 1980 --- Denmark 2005 . Decentralized CHP (orange) . Wind mill park (green) . Centralized CHP (red)

  7. Denmark ... Dramatic shift • 1988 • Decentralised CHP in the West Danish power grid150MW • Total wind 100 MW. • 2004 • Decentralised CHP 1600 MW • Wind 3125 MW, 18.5% electricity supply. • 2007 • Wind 3125 MW, 19.7% supply. • Driven by policies that reduced risks for investors in new technologies, and provided CHP, renewables and waste priority access to the grid

  8. Danish power system (1988-2004) Risø Energy Report 4 Flexibility, stability and security of energy supply, POUL SøRENSEN, PETER MEIBOM, PER NøRGåRD, RISø NATIONAL LABORATORy, DENMARK

  9. Decentralised CHP in Denmark

  10. MASNEDØ CHP plant Denmark 18000 households40Ktpa straw8.3MWe 21MWh

  11. Wind Straw Other agricultural waste

  12. Sweden Multiple shifts since 1970

  13. Agricultural waste Straw – a natural starting point for agricultural economies

  14. Net straw surplus/deficit (1000 tonnes/region) estimated from national studies and cattle breeding data (Eurostat: Spain – year 2002, Bulgaria – year 2001, other countries - year 2003)

  15. 40 MW straw plants feasible in EU • 200ktpa (40MW) • reserve 50% • transport radius 50 km. • Key ingredients for an efficient system • Harvest waste • Heat sinks

  16. Large volumes renewable gas? Can a country substitute TWh scale volumes of gas with renewable gas?

  17. Gothenburg Energy plant • CoBiGas – synthetic biogas from gasified biofuels • Transportation fueld • Industrial processes • Combined heat and power • 100 MW gas ... circa 800 GWh/år. • Gasification plant • 2 stages – 1st (ca 20 MW) 2010-2012, • 2nd (ca 80 MW) 2013-2015.

  18. Sweden’s road transportation fuels • Petrol (Gasoline) – circa 50TWh • Diesel – circa 20 TWh Some rough figures....feasible figures • Biogas potential (waste + dedicated crops) 15TWh • Synthetic biogas potential (forestry waste) 25TWh

  19. Some rough estimates 100MW • 100 MW capacity ...operational year ...circa 1 TWh • 250 000t wood ..... Circa 1 TWh • 500 000t straw ..... Circa 1 Twh 50m 15m Timber (roundwood) 600m

  20. This much wood every year? (200MW capacity?) ~ 500 000m3 solid wood (???)

  21. Can large plantation forestry produce results quickly? (Australia) • Tax scheme 1997 • 10 years of plantings at 70 000ha/year Eucalyptus • Landuse change >700 000 ha farmland (650mm to 750mm annual rainfall zone) – now carbon sink. • 10-15 year pulp wood cycle, 20-30 year saw log cycle • First pellet plants (slash and harvest waste) online 2008-2010 (13 x 125ktpa modules in 6-8 locations) • First contracts with European Power utilities for pellet supply 2009 • Within 5 years 1.6 Mtpa pellets • Roughly 8TWh --- or sufficient to cofire 10% wood pellets in 8 x 1000MW capacity coal fired plants

  22. A demonstration BTL plant in Germany (15ktpa) ….. Multiply by 10 ?

  23. Or this much wood ?? "Mount Byholma" --- storm fellings 900 000m3 timber Piles 13 meters high & 2 km long Foto: Göranssons Åkeri.

  24. Fischer Tropsch plant 1Mtpa

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