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Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran

Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran. Jon Wolfsthal Deputy Director CNS. US Institute for Peace – June 10, 2014. US-Iranian Ties/Tensions Have a Long History. 1950s with Overthrow of Iranian PM Mossadegh 1960s - 1970s US Support for Shah 1979 – Iranian Hostage Crisis - 444

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Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran

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  1. Timelines And Nuclear Deals With Iran Jon Wolfsthal Deputy Director CNS US Institute for Peace – June 10, 2014

  2. US-Iranian Ties/Tensions Have a Long History • 1950s with Overthrow of Iranian PM Mossadegh • 1960s - 1970s US Support for Shah • 1979 – Iranian Hostage Crisis - 444 • 1980s – Iran Iraq War, Use of Chemical Weapons against Iran • 2003 – Axis of Evil/Regime Change Long time to get to this point, will take time to genuinely improve relations, build trust if at all possible

  3. Building Trust Via Nuclear Agreement is Hard • We Tried Before in North Korea – 1994 Deal Failed • Who Wants a Cookie? • Lack of Trust on Both Sides • Political Deck Stacked Against Compromise on Both Sides • Time Not Currently Working for US Security • Front Loaded Deal Not Reliable/Viable, So We Are Pursuing Step-by-Step • Has its Own Risks

  4. Why So Long? • Deal is About “Regaining Confidence” in Iran’s Intentions • Some Nuclear Capacity is Permanent, Regardless of Policy • We Have Good Reason to Doubt Them • How Do We Know When They Have Stopped? • Japan, South Korea, Others Still Suspected • We Needs Years of Compliance by Multiple Governments and Under Enhanced Transparency to See if a Deal is Working • Iran’s Nuclear Needs are Small, Gives us an Opportunity to Engage, Build Incentives for a Deal to Stick • We Are Betting that Iran Wants a Deal More Than a Nuclear Program

  5. Why Not Forever? • This is Not Iraq • Iran Not a Vanquished State • Seeking to Maintain a Fallacy of Nuclear Purity • They Will Have to Admit Something • Inspections/Sanctions are Not Going to be Like Iraq After 1991 • Would be Great, Not Going to Happen • Iran Wants an End State of Normalcy, Gives US Negotiating Leverage

  6. Phasing • Linking Increased Enrichment and Sanctions Relief to Milestones • Major Sanctions Relief Up Front Builds Incentives to Comply • Something New to Take Away? • Resolution of Nuclear Past • Prioritize What Matters • Greater Nuclear Demand without Foreign Supply • Outside Supply and Fuel Bank as Off Ramps • Years of Full Compliance • Subjective – Art of Negotiating

  7. Pitfalls (Bet On Them) • Allegations of Secret Facilities – Inevitable • Israel, MEK, US Sources • Allegations of Weapons Work Ongoing • What Happens to the People? • Efforts to Impose Non-Nuclear Sanctions by US • Missile, Human Rights, Terrorism • Let’s Not Forget Who We Are Dealing With • What is Worth Losing an Agreement Over?

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