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The Demography of Religious Change in the West

The Demography of Religious Change in the West. Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk. Religion in the West. Loss through secularization Moderation of slide by resistant remnant, notably fundamentalists Gain through demography. Demography and Religion.

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The Demography of Religious Change in the West

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  1. The Demography of Religious Change in the West Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

  2. Religion in the West • Loss through secularization • Moderation of slide by resistant remnant, notably fundamentalists • Gain through demography

  3. Demography and Religion • Indirect: poor, less educated and rural people have more children than urban, wealthy, educated • Direct: Religious have more children than seculars; fundamentalists more than moderates

  4. The Religious Tropics: Total Fertility Rates by Country, 2008 Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008

  5. Indirect Effect: Expansion of Islam; Conversion Effect: Decline of Animists; Both: Decline of Seculars

  6. Direct Effect: Religiosity and Fertility in Europe and USA United States, 2006 (GSS)

  7. Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios Source: Goujon et al. 2006

  8. Similar Dynamics in USA

  9. Religion in the West • Loss through secularization • Moderation of slide by resistant remnant • Gain through demography • Indirect through global migration • Direct, through higher fertility • Fundamentalists maximize gains, minimize losses

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